海牙战略研究中心-石墨：关键矿物的供应链挑战与建议（英）-2022.3-33页_3mb

总结：Graphite - Supply chain challenges & recommendations for a critical mineral

核心内容

Graphite is a critical mineral for the global energy transition, particularly for the development of low-carbon technologies in transportation and heavy industry. It is a key component in lithium-ion batteries and electric arc furnaces (EAFs) used in steel production. The mineral's unique properties, such as electrical conductivity, heat resistance, and flexibility, make it essential for these applications. However, the current global supply chain for graphite is heavily concentrated in China, which accounts for approximately 80% of the world's graphite supply, creating significant supply risks for the EU and US.

主要观点

• Graphite's Strategic Importance: Graphite is vital for the decarbonization of key sectors, including transportation and steel manufacturing. Its role in energy storage and steel production is expected to grow substantially in the coming decades.
• Supply Chain Concentration: China dominates the graphite supply chain, both in production and processing, which makes the EU and US vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks.
• Demand Projections: The demand for graphite is projected to increase by up to 500% by 2050 compared to 2018 levels. This is driven by the growing use of lithium-ion batteries and EAFs in steel production.
• Economic and Environmental Impacts: The use of synthetic graphite is energy-intensive and environmentally harmful, which has raised concerns from an ESG perspective. This may lead to a shift toward natural graphite and more sustainable processing methods.
• Natural Graphite Sources: Natural flake graphite is the preferred type for battery and EAF applications. It is available in countries like Mozambique, Ukraine, Norway, and Russia, offering opportunities for diversifying the supply chain.
• Processing Innovations: The EU and US have developed cleaner and more efficient methods for processing natural graphite, which could help in establishing a sustainable and resilient supply chain.
• Supply Chain Resilience: Diversifying graphite supply sources and developing local processing capabilities are crucial for reducing dependency on China and ensuring long-term security of supply.

关键信息

• Graphite Types: There are two main types of graphite: natural and synthetic. Natural graphite is further classified into amorphous, vein, and flake graphite, with flake graphite being the most suitable for battery and EAF applications.
• Market Share: In 2021, China accounted for 79% of global natural graphite production, while the EU contributed only 3%. Ukraine is the largest natural graphite producer in the EU, accounting for about 50% of European output.
• Demand Growth: Lithium-ion battery demand is expected to grow at a 33% CAGR, with global battery demand projected to reach 1.159 TWh by 2025. This will require significant amounts of processed graphite, up to 1.2 million tons in 2025.
• EAFs and Graphite: The use of EAFs in steel production is increasing due to decarbonization efforts. EAFs rely on high-quality graphite electrodes, which are primarily made from synthetic graphite. By 2030, graphite demand for EAF electrodes could reach 1.7 million tons, increasing to 5.7 million tons by 2050.
• ESG Considerations: The environmental impact of synthetic graphite production is a growing concern, prompting a re-evaluation of its use in "green energy" technologies.
• Recommendations: Governments in the EU and US should support the development of a domestic graphite processing ecosystem, encourage investment in sustainable sourcing, and work to reduce dependency on China. This would help secure the supply of graphite needed for the energy transition while meeting environmental and social standards.

结构清晰的要点

图表与数据

• Table 1: Projected global battery demand from 2017 to 2025 shows a 33% CAGR, with total demand reaching 1159 GWh by 2025.
• Figure 3: Graphite demand is expected to increase 25-fold by 2040 in the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) and 8-fold in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
• Figure 4: Battery-related minerals, including graphite, are projected to grow significantly by 2040.
• Figure 7: Graphite demand for EAF electrodes is expected to rise from 1.7 million tons in 2030 to 5.7 million tons in 2050.

图形与示例

• Figure 1: Natural flake graphite from the Molo project in Madagascar.
• Figure 2: Graphite's molecular structure, showing its flexibility and strength.
• Figure 5: Comparison of conventional steel production and EAF processes.
• Figure 6: Schematic illustration of an EAF, highlighting the role of graphite electrodes.
• Figure 8: Types of natural graphite and their uses.

作者与机构

• Authors: Amrish Ritoe, Irina Patrahau, Michel Rademaker (PL)
• Institution: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)
• Financial Support: Urbix, Inc

联系信息

• ISBN/EAN: 9789492102973
• Publication Date: March 2022
• Cover Photo Source: Steve Jurvetson

结论

The paper emphasizes the importance of graphite in the energy transition and highlights the need for the EU and US to develop a more resilient and diversified supply chain. With the increasing demand for graphite in batteries and EAFs, securing access to high-quality graphite through local processing and international partnerships is essential to support the growth of clean energy technologies.