2015年-世界发展银行全球_South_East_Europe_Regular_Economic_Report_January_2015___Coping_with_Floods_Strengthening_Growth_84页_1mb

Summary of the South East Europe Regular Economic Report No.7 - Coping with Floods, Strengthening Growth (January 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the economic developments, prospects, and policy implications for six South Eastern European countries (SEE6): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. It highlights the challenges posed by natural disasters, particularly floods, and the structural issues that continue to hinder growth in the region. The report also discusses the impact of global economic conditions, migration trends, and the potential for EU accession on the region's economic performance.

Main Points

Economic Performance in 2014

• The SEE6 region's economy stagnated in 2014, growing by only 0.2%, which was insufficient to improve living standards or reduce high unemployment.
• Serbia experienced a 2% contraction, marking the third time since the global crisis.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro saw sharp slowdowns, with Bosnia stagnating and Montenegro experiencing a moderate decline.
• Albania, Kosovo, and FYR Macedonia showed more sustained recovery, driven by increased exports and domestic demand.

Impact of Floods

• The May 2014 floods were the primary cause of the weak economic performance.
• In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the floods caused 15% of GDP in losses, while in Serbia, the damage was estimated at 4.7% of GDP.
• The floods significantly affected agriculture and energy production, leading to reduced output and increased reconstruction costs.

External and Domestic Demand

• External demand for SEE6 exports was a key positive factor in 2014, especially in the European market.
• However, domestic demand remained weak due to delayed or reduced public and private investments, weak consumer confidence, and the aftermath of the floods.
• Imports increased due to reconstruction efforts, leading to wider current account deficits.

Fiscal and Public Debt

• The average fiscal deficit in SEE6 rose to 4.2% of GDP in 2014, driven by higher expenditures than revenues.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina had the largest fiscal deficit increase, from 1.9% to 4.5% of GDP.
• Serbia also saw a deterioration in its fiscal position, from 5.6% to 7.9% of GDP.
• Public debt increased by 3% of GDP, reaching an average of 52.3% of GDP in the region.
• Debt levels exceeded 60% of GDP in Albania, Montenegro, and Serbia.

Structural Challenges

• Labor markets remain weak with high unemployment and low labor force participation.
• Investment climate needs improvement, particularly in reducing non-performing loans and increasing formal job creation.
• Infrastructure is outdated and needs modernization to support economic growth.

Key Information

Growth Projections for 2015

• The SEE6 region is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2015, supported by external demand recovery and stabilized energy prices.
• Serbia is expected to remain in recession due to weak domestic demand and fiscal constraints.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina is likely to begin a gradual recovery.
• Albania, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, and Montenegro are projected to grow above 3% in 2015.

Risks to Growth

• Fiscal consolidation and privatization could reduce public support for reforms.
• Deflationary pressures and weak global growth may dampen economic activity.
• Eurozone performance and Russia-Ukraine tensions pose risks to external demand and financial stability.
• Climate change and weather shocks continue to threaten the region's economic resilience.

Opportunities for Growth

• EU accession is a key opportunity for structural reforms and economic integration.
• Improved connectivity with the EU and the global market can help competitive firms access new markets.
• Low oil prices are expected to boost growth and reduce current account deficits.

Spotlights

Spotlight I: Climate Change and Economic Impact

• The economic impact of climate change is significant in the SEE6, especially in agriculture and energy sectors.
• The FYR Macedonia Green Growth Study provides insights into how climate adaptation can help mitigate economic losses.

Spotlight II: Migration Trends

• Migration is a critical issue in the region, with a significant portion of emigrants being highly educated.
• Brain drain is a concern, particularly in healthcare and education sectors.
• Population decline due to net migration and natural increase is expected to continue, affecting labor markets and economic growth.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and climate resilience to strengthen economic growth in the SEE6. While external demand and low oil prices offer some support, the region must address internal challenges such as weak labor markets, inefficient public sectors, and high non-performing loans to ensure sustainable development. The EU accession process and improved regional connectivity are seen as key enablers of long-term growth.