战略与国际研究中心-Select-Briefing-Vol-2,-No-46_2页_128kb

报告摘要

CSIS New European Democracies Project Summary - December 2, 2005

Core Content

The CSIS New European Democracies Project provides a detailed update on political, economic, and military developments in Central, Baltic, and Southeast European countries. The report covers the Visegrad Four (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), and Southeast European countries (Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia). It highlights the ongoing challenges and progress in these regions, particularly in the context of EU enlargement, economic reforms, and international cooperation.

Central European Update

Czech Republic

The OECD projected 4.5% economic growth for the Czech Republic over the next two years.
However, it warned that slow structural reforms could negatively impact growth and public finances.
Petr Kolar, Deputy Foreign Minister, will become the Czech Ambassador to the United States on 2 December.

Hungary

Foreign Minister Ferenc Somogyi met with Polish counterpart Stefan Meller to discuss the EU 2007-2013 budget.
Both agreed that a new budget would be the best solution but were reluctant to accept any cuts.
The European Commission conditionally approved the acquisition of MOL's assets by E.ON AG, with a final decision expected on 21 December.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair met with Visegrad Four leaders in Budapest, but no compromise was reached due to opposition to a 10% reduction in cohesion funds.

Poland

Polska Siec Elektroenergetyczna is negotiating with Lietuvos Energia to build a new nuclear reactor in place of Lithuania's Ignalina plant.
This move reflects Poland's concerns over energy shortages by 2020 due to its reliance on coal and Russian gas.
The EBRD will invest 350-500 million euros in Poland in 2006, focusing on infrastructure projects.
Polish troops will be withdrawn from Iraq in 2006, with a parliamentary vote on the timing scheduled for December.

Slovakia

The Slovak government decided to redeploy troops from Afghanistan to ISAF.
The move requires parliamentary approval.
Regional elections held on 26 November saw low voter turnout (18%), attributed to poor campaigns and recent corruption scandals.
Slovakia became the first Visegrad Four country to join ERM II on 25 November, seven months earlier than expected, as part of its path to euro adoption.

Baltic States Update

Lithuania

Lithuania plans to reduce its troop presence in Iraq at the start of 2006.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Antanas Valionis visited Poland to discuss bilateral issues, including minority rights and regional cooperation.

Latvia

Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica and Latvian Foreign Minister Artis Pabriks met to discuss Balkan stability and economic/cultural cooperation.
Mikhail Yelfimov, a Russian oil executive, applied for asylum in Latvia, drawing attention due to ongoing criminal investigations in Russia.

Estonia

Estonian President Arnold Ruitel emphasized the importance of cooperation among the Baltic states at the Baltic Assembly.
He met with leaders from Poland, Romania, and Lithuania.
Tony Blair visited Tallinn to negotiate the EU 2007-2013 budget, with Estonia stressing the need for solidarity among EU members.

Southeast European Update

Croatia

Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica made an official visit to Croatia, the first since 1996.
He highlighted the importance of Croatia's EU accession and the need for cooperation on war criminals.
The Croatian Parliament approved a 2006 budget of 98.8 billion kuna, expecting 4% growth and 3% inflation.

Bulgaria

Deputy Prime Minister Ivailo Kalfin met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk to discuss infrastructure and energy projects.
Defense Minister Veselin Bliznakov warned that military modernization delays could delay Bulgaria's EU membership.
Bulgaria seeks additional EU compensation of 280 million euros for closing four nuclear reactors at Kozloduy, similar to requests from Lithuania and Slovakia.

Romania

The EBRD announced a 20 million euro lending program to support small municipalities in Romania.
The Romanian National Association of Software Industries opened an IT&C industrial park in Bacau, investing 7.3 million euros and creating 500 jobs.

Slovenia

Slovenian President Janez Drnovsek met with Montenegrin President Filip Vujanovic, urging consensus on Montenegro's independence referendum.
He proposed a union between Slovenia and Montenegro, which was rejected by Belgrade.
Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa reiterated that Drnovsek's support for Kosovo's independence was not the official government stance.
Albanian President Alfred Moisiu met with Drnovsek to seek support for Albania's EU membership and discuss Kosovo's future status.

Key Information

Economic growth is a common theme, with projections and concerns over structural reforms and energy dependency.
EU budget negotiations are a focal point, with Visegrad Four countries resisting cuts to cohesion funds.
Military deployments and withdrawals are being adjusted, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan.
International cooperation and regional stability are emphasized, especially in Baltic and Southeast Europe.
EU accession and economic integration are central to many countries' agendas, with compensation and infrastructure support being key issues.