2018年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic___Making_the_National_Development_Strategy_2030_a_Success_-_Building_the_Foundation_for_Shared_Prosperity_94页_3mb

Summary of Tajikistan Systematic Country Diagnostic (May 2018)

Core Content

The Tajikistan Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD), published in May 2018, outlines the challenges and opportunities for achieving the National Development Strategy 2030 (NDS 2030), which aims to improve the population's living standards through significant infrastructure and economic development. The report highlights the country's need for sustainable growth, reduced poverty, and improved governance to ensure long-term prosperity and stability.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic and Social Context:

  • Tajikistan is a landlocked, mountainous country with a population of about 8.7 million, and a GNI per capita of US$1,100 in 2016, classifying it as a lower middle-income country.
  • The Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP), with a capacity of 3,600 MW, is the central pillar of the NDS 2030, expected to boost hydropower exports, remove energy shortages, and increase government revenue and poverty reduction.
  • The country has experienced economic instability since independence in 1991, including a five-year civil war and weak governance structures.

• Growth Trends and Drivers:

  • Tajikistan saw rapid economic growth after the civil war, with per capita real income more than doubling between 1998 and 2016.
  • Growth was driven by remittances, which reached US$3.4 billion in 2013 or 40% of GDP.
  • However, growth has slowed since 2009, due to external shocks such as the 2009 and 2014 financial crises, which led to declines in remittances and commodity prices.
  • Public investment has increasingly supported growth, especially in recent years, but private investment remains weak at 4.4% of GDP.

• Poverty Reduction:

  • Tajikistan has made significant progress in reducing extreme poverty, from 54% in 1999 to 5% in 2015.
  • However, poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, and 31% of the population was still in poverty in 2016.
  • Non-monetary poverty remains high, with widespread deprivations in health, education, and infrastructure.
  • Youth unemployment is a major issue, with 41% of youth being inactive and limited job creation in the private sector.

• Challenges to Sustainable Growth:

  • External Vulnerabilities have increased significantly, with external debt reaching 67% of GDP in 2016, and expected to exceed 70% by 2017 due to the Rogun HPP project.
  • Remittances are unsustainable as a growth driver, given economic instability, rising debt, and limited private sector development.
  • State-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominate key sectors, but profitability has declined, leading to accumulated liabilities (38% of GDP) and reduced private sector growth.

• Opportunities for Development:

  • Private sector development is critical, but the regulatory environment, tax compliance costs, and limited financial intermediation hinder growth.
  • Infrastructure development, especially electricity and transport, is essential for economic competitiveness and job creation.
  • Human capital investment and improved education and health systems are necessary to support demographic dividends and long-term productivity.

Key Information

• Main Challenges:

  • Weak governance and centralized power limit institutional effectiveness and increase corruption risks.
  • Fragility and climate change pose significant risks to economic and social stability.
  • High reliance on remittances makes the economy vulnerable to external shocks.
  • State dominance in key sectors stifles private sector development and innovation.

• Priority Actions for NDS 2030 Success:

  1. Macro-financial stabilization is essential, including banking sector reform and improved macroeconomic management.
  2. Creation of effective public institutions to support private sector development, fiscal transparency, and data collection.
  3. Strategic investment in infrastructure and human capital, especially electricity, transport, and education.

• Recommendations:

  • Diversify growth drivers to reduce reliance on remittances.
  • Improve the business environment and financial intermediation.
  • Strengthen governance and public institutions to ensure accountability and transparency.
  • Develop a sustainable financing strategy for the Rogun HPP, including cross-border transmission lines and debt management.
  • Address youth unemployment and improve labor market outcomes.

Conclusion

The SCD emphasizes that while Tajikistan has made progress in poverty reduction and economic growth, sustainable development requires reforms in governance, financial systems, and private sector development. The Rogun HPP offers a potential growth engine, but its success depends on effective financing, debt management, and institutional capacity. Without addressing these challenges, Tajikistan risks economic instability, social unrest, and poverty persistence. The NDS 2030 must be implemented with realistic financing, policy measures, and monitoring frameworks to ensure shared prosperity and long-term stability.