世界发展银行-Steering-Towards-Cleaner-Air---Measures-to-Mitigate-Transport-Air-Pollution-in-Addis-Ababa_79页_2mb

Summary of "Steering Towards Cleaner Air: Measures to Mitigate Transport Air Pollution in Addis Ababa"

Core Content

The report Steering Towards Cleaner Air: Measures to Mitigate Transport Air Pollution in Addis Ababa evaluates transport-related air pollution in Addis Ababa (AA) and identifies mitigation strategies to reduce emissions and improve air quality. It is a product of the World Bank's Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) program, in collaboration with Ethiopian government agencies and international development partners.

Main Objectives

• Assess potential mitigation measures for transport-related air pollution in AA.
• Provide policy recommendations to reduce emissions and improve air quality.
• Align mitigation strategies with broader urban transport and motorization management goals.

Key Findings

• Transport is a major contributor to air pollution in AA: It accounts for 29% of PM₂.₅ emissions, over 90% of NOₓ and CO₂ emissions, and is one of the top three sources of PM₂.₅ pollution in the city.
• Health and economic impacts are significant: PM₂.₅ exposure in AA causes approximately 1,600 premature deaths annually, with economic costs estimated at $78 million or 1.3% of the city's GDP in 2019.
• Rapid motorization and urban expansion: AA has tripled in size over the past two decades, reducing urban density and increasing vehicle numbers. By 2030, the city is projected to have over 900,000 vehicles, leading to exponential growth in emissions.
• Current challenges: The city uses high-sulfur fuels (500ppm diesel and 10ppm gasoline), lacks effective emission standards, and has an aging vehicle fleet with minimal emission control. Emission inspections are ineffective, only detecting smoke and carbon monoxide without setting thresholds.
• Climate co-benefits: Reducing transport emissions has positive global climate impacts, as transport contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and black carbon (BC), which is the second-largest driver of climate change after CO₂.

Main Mitigation Measures

The report identifies nine potential mitigation measures, which are categorized into three groups:

1. Fuel and Vehicle Emission Standards

• Low-sulfur fuels: Introduction of 50ppm (Stage 1) and 10ppm (Stage 2) diesel fuel is a pre-condition for most other measures. Euro 4 diesel is recommended, while Euro 5 is not due to cost.
• Vehicle emission standards: Euro 4 and Euro 6 standards for new and used vehicles are proposed. Euro 4 is recommended once low-sulfur fuels are available, while Euro 6 is not due to higher costs than benefits.
• Emission standards for in-use vehicles (I/M): Establishing maximum emission levels and integrating emission testing with roadworthiness tests is recommended. These measures aim to identify and control high-emitting vehicles.

2. Vehicle Measures

• Vehicle retrofits with emission control equipment: This measure significantly reduces PM₂.₅ emissions but is not recommended due to high costs and implementation complexity.
• Vehicle age restriction and scrapping programs: Not recommended due to high costs and limited benefits, as vehicle age is not a strong proxy for emissions.
• Ban on import and new registration of light diesel vehicles: Highly recommended for its immediate impact and simplicity. Petrol cars are considered a cost-effective alternative to diesel vehicles.

3. Public Transport, Non-Motorized Transport (NMT), and Transit Demand Management (TDM)

• Improving public transport and NMT: Promotes mode shift and has high potential to reduce local pollutants. AA currently has a 31% public transport mode share, which is low compared to its potential.
• Transit-oriented development (TOD): Encourages compact urban planning and integrates transport with land use to reduce emissions.
• Transport demand management: Includes measures to reduce private vehicle use and promote public transport efficiency.

Key Recommendations

• Introduce low-sulfur diesel (50ppm): As a foundational measure to enable other emission reduction strategies.
• Implement Euro 4 emission standards: For new and used vehicles, provided low-sulfur fuels are available.
• Enhance in-use vehicle emission controls: Establishing maximum emission levels and integrating emission testing into roadworthiness inspections.
• Promote public transport and NMT: Through operational improvements, restructuring of bus services, and transit-oriented development.
• Ban light diesel vehicles: To reduce PM₂.₅ and NOₓ emissions effectively.
• Support low-carbon vehicles (EVs and hybrids): Especially for urban buses, but requires a comprehensive e-mobility strategy.

Economic and Social Considerations

• Cost-benefit analysis: Used to evaluate the effectiveness of each measure, with unit costs of pollutants (PM₂.₅, NOₓ, SO₂) updated to USD based on Ethiopia's GDP per capita.
• Social cost of carbon (SCC): Estimated at around $40 per ton of CO₂e in 2019, reflecting the increasing marginal damage of global warming.
• Implementation complexity: Measures such as vehicle retrofits and scrapping programs are complex and costly, limiting their immediate adoption.
• Fiscally neutral incentives: Recommended for promoting low-emission vehicles to ensure affordability and acceptance.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for an integrated approach to managing urban transport and air quality in Addis Ababa. It recommends a combination of fuel and vehicle standards, improved public transport systems, and targeted vehicle restrictions to mitigate transport-related air pollution. These measures are aligned with the SSATP's EASI framework and are expected to contribute to both local and global environmental benefits.