斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Trends-in-world-military-expenditure-2012_8页_865kb

Summary of Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2012

Core Content

In 2012, global military expenditure fell to $1.753 trillion, equivalent to 2.5% of the world's GDP. This marked the first decrease since 1998, though the decline was only 0.5% in real terms. The overall reduction was primarily due to spending cuts in the West, including North America, Western and Central Europe, and Australia, which were partially offset by increases in the developing world and Eastern Europe, particularly Russia.

Despite the fall in 2012, military spending remained at historically high levels, surpassing the peak near the end of the Cold War. The decline may signal a shift in the global balance of military spending, although the West still accounts for the majority of global expenditure.

Main Trends and Key Information

Global Trends

• World military expenditure in 2012: $1.753 trillion (2.5% of global GDP).
• Annual change: -0.5% in real terms (first decrease since 1998).
• Long-term trend: Spending peaked in 2010-2011 and began to decline after 2009.
• Post-Cold War decline: Military spending fell significantly after the Cold War, reaching a low in the mid-to-late 1990s, then gradually rising again.

Top 15 Military Spendings

• The top 15 countries accounted for over 80% of global military expenditure in 2012.
• The USA was the largest spender, contributing nearly 40% of the global total, though its share decreased slightly.
• China and Russia saw significant increases in spending, with China's rising by 7.8% and Russia's by 16%.
• India and Brazil showed minimal changes, while Italy, Australia, and Canada experienced reductions.
• Japan, UK, France, and Germany had small changes, with some countries like Germany increasing slightly.

Regional Trends

• North America and Western/Central Europe accounted for the majority of global spending, but saw a decline in 2012.
• Developing countries and former Soviet states experienced increases in military spending.
• Sub-Saharan Africa saw its first decline in military expenditure since 2003, with Uganda and South Sudan leading the drop.
• Middle East and North Africa had significant increases, with Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait leading the rise.
• Central America showed a sharp increase in military expenditure, driven by security concerns such as drug trafficking and armed crime.

Security Spending in Central America

• Military expenditure in Central America increased by 8.1% in real terms in 2012, reaching $8.5 billion.
• Between 2003 and 2012, it rose by 70%, with Mexico and Nicaragua showing the largest increases (81% and 24%, respectively).
• Honduras and Guatemala saw substantial increases, while Belize and El Salvador reduced their spending.
• Internal security spending also increased significantly, with Mexico leading the rise at 239%, followed by Costa Rica, Panama, Guatemala, and Honduras.

Key Observations

• The USA's military spending fell by 6% in real terms in 2012, but remained 69% higher than in 2001.
• Russia is implementing a major modernization plan, with projected increases in military spending.
• The 2008 global financial crisis had a dampening effect on military spending growth in many regions, especially in the West.
• The Arab Spring and regional tensions may have contributed to increased spending in the Middle East.
• China's military spending increased by 175% since 2003, the largest increase among the top 15 spenders.
• India cut military spending in 2012 despite border tensions with China.
• Sub-Saharan Africa saw a 3.2% decline in military expenditure, though most countries still increased spending.

Conclusion

The 2012 data highlights a nuanced shift in global military expenditure, with the West experiencing a decline and other regions, particularly Russia, China, and parts of the developing world, showing increases. Central America, traditionally low in military spending, saw a notable rise due to heightened security challenges. The long-term trend suggests that while global military spending remains high, there may be a gradual reallocation of resources from the West to other regions.