斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Trends-in-world-military-expenditure-2015_8页_900kb

Summary of Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2015

Core Content

In 2015, global military expenditure reached an estimated $1676 billion, marking a 1.0% real-term increase—the first since 2011. This represents 2.3% of global GDP, and the total spending had previously declined slightly from 2011 to 2014. The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, updated in April 2016, provides the latest data on regional and national trends for 2015 and the period from 2006 to 2015.

Main Points

• Global Trends:

  • Military spending increased in Asia and Oceania, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Middle East (where data is available).
  • Spending decreased in North America, Western Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa.
  • The decline in world oil prices affected several oil-dependent countries, leading to cuts in military spending, while others like Russia and Saudi Arabia continued to increase spending despite the oil price drop.

• Top 15 Military Spendings:

  • The top five spenders in 2015 were USA ($596 billion), China ($215 billion), Saudi Arabia ($87.2 billion), Russia ($66.4 billion), and UK ($55.5 billion).
  • The USA remained the largest spender, with a 2.4% decline in 2015, the slowest since 2011.
  • China saw a 7.4% increase in 2015, while Saudi Arabia overtook Russia due to the rouble's depreciation.
  • Russia planned cuts for 2016, and Saudi Arabia is expected to follow suit.
  • India, France, Japan, and Germany also showed modest increases or decreases in spending.

• Regional Trends:

  • Asia and Oceania: Spending increased by 5.4% in 2015 and 64% between 2006 and 2015, reaching $436 billion. China accounted for 49% of regional spending.
  • Europe: Total military expenditure rose by 1.7% in 2015, with Western and Central Europe decreasing by 0.2% and Eastern Europe increasing by 7.5%.
  • Central Europe saw a 13% increase, driven by fears of Russian aggression after the Ukraine crisis. Poland and Romania were notable for their increases.
  • Russia increased spending by 7.5% in 2015 but faced budget cuts due to economic sanctions and falling oil prices. Ukraine saw a 10% increase in spending.
  • Middle East: Data for 2015 is uncertain, but spending increased by 4.1% for countries with available data. Saudi Arabia remained the largest spender in the region, with a 100% increase from 2006 to 2015.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: Spending fell by 2.9% in 2015, but was 33% higher than in 2006. Mexico and Honduras showed significant increases.
  • Africa: Spending decreased by 5.3% in 2015, ending an 11-year trend of growth. North Africa saw a 2.1% increase, while sub-Saharan Africa dropped by 11%.

Key Information

• The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database provides data in local currency, US dollars at constant prices, and as a share of GDP.
• Military expenditure is defined to include all current and capital spending on:
  • The armed forces, including peacekeeping forces.
  • Defence ministries and other government agencies involved in defence.
  • Paramilitary forces trained and equipped for military operations.
  • Military space activities.
• Excluded from the definition are civil defence and current expenditure on previous military activities (e.g., veterans' benefits, demobilization, and weapon destruction).
• Uncertain data for certain countries, such as Cuba, Eritrea, North Korea, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, was excluded due to lack of reliable data.
• The USA's share of global military expenditure remained high at 36% in 2015, despite the decline in spending.
• Iraq saw the largest increase in military spending (536%) between 2006 and 2015 due to the conflict with the Islamic State.
• Venezuela experienced the largest decrease (77%) in military spending, driven by its economic crisis and falling oil prices.
• Nigeria and Mali saw significant increases in military spending due to conflict and instability.

Conclusion

The 2015 global military expenditure data highlights a shift in spending patterns, with Asia and Oceania, Central and Eastern Europe, and some Middle Eastern countries increasing spending, while North America, Western Europe, Latin America, and Africa saw declines. The impact of oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and economic conditions played a major role in shaping these trends. The USA and China remain the top spenders, with Russia and Saudi Arabia showing notable growth, though both are expected to reduce spending in 2016.