世界发展银行-Morocco-Economic-Monitor,-June-2021---Building-Momentum-for-Reform_56页_2mb

Morocco Economic Monitor Summary

Core Content

The Morocco Economic Monitor, published in Spring 2021, provides an analysis of the country's economic developments and outlook, with a special focus on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, inequality, and employment issues. It highlights Morocco's efforts to implement transformative reforms and the challenges that remain in achieving a more inclusive and resilient economic recovery.

Main Points

1. Recent Economic Developments

• Epidemiological Containment: Morocco successfully contained the spread of the pandemic after a severe second wave, thanks to strict lockdown measures. The country's case numbers began to decline significantly in late 2020.
• Vaccination Campaign: The vaccination campaign started successfully, aiming to cover 80% of the adult population by the end of 2021. As of May 2021, the country had administered 10.6 million doses, placing it among the top performers in Africa and the MENA region.
• Uneven Recovery: The economy experienced a sharp contraction in 2020, with real GDP falling by 15.1% in Q2. The recovery in the second half of the year was driven mainly by external demand, with the secondary and tertiary sectors showing stronger rebounds than the primary sector, which was hit by drought.
• Fiscal and External Position: Despite a large fiscal impact, Morocco's external position remained resilient, with a partial recovery in exports, a sharp decline in imports, and increased remittances. The budget deficit and public debt increased less than in neighboring countries.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank maintained an expansionary monetary stance, but price pressures remained subdued due to the low level of domestic demand.

2. Economic Outlook

• Growth Projection: Real GDP growth is projected to rebound to 4.6% in 2021, supported by the agricultural sector and partial recovery in secondary and tertiary sectors.
• Recovery Timeline: Real GDP is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels only in 2022, with a significant cumulative output loss.
• Risk Outlook: The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside due to the global spread of new and more infectious variants, supply constraints in vaccine delivery, and macro-financial vulnerabilities.

3. Special Focus: COVID-19, Inequality, and Jobs

• Unequal Impact of Pandemic: The pandemic disproportionately affected poorer segments of the population, increasing poverty incidence after years of social progress.
• Social Protection Measures: Extensive cash transfer programs helped mitigate the socio-economic impact of the crisis, particularly for vulnerable groups.
• Poverty and Employment: Poverty is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. The labor market faces long-term challenges, including limited job creation capacity, high inactivity among youth and women, and slow decline in informality.

Key Reforms

• Strategic Investment Fund (Mohammed VI Fund): Created to support the private sector.
• Social Protection Overhaul: Includes universalization of health insurance and family allowances.
• Restructuring of SOEs: Aimed at improving efficiency and reducing state involvement in the economy.
• New Development Model: Emphasizes human development, gender equity, and private sector competitiveness.

Challenges

• Private Sector Recovery: Despite government support, the private sector is still struggling, with a high number of firms reporting reduced demand and financial difficulties.
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): The stock of NPLs has increased, potentially delaying private investment recovery.
• Informality and Inactivity: The economy's capacity to create jobs remains limited, and informality levels are slowly declining.
• Structural Issues: Longstanding inequities and structural bottlenecks continue to constrain economic performance.

Data and Analysis

• Economic Indicators: Real GDP, fiscal deficit, public debt, and other indicators are analyzed to assess the recovery and reform progress.
• Labor Market Trends: Data on employment, inactivity, and sectoral distribution is used to evaluate long-term labor market challenges.
• Sectoral Performance: The agricultural, secondary, and tertiary sectors show varied recovery rates, with tourism and transport sectors being particularly hard hit.

Conclusion

Morocco has demonstrated resilience in containing the pandemic and initiating reform programs. However, the economic recovery remains uneven, and structural challenges in the labor market and private sector need to be addressed for long-term growth and equity. The success of the vaccination campaign is crucial, but delivery constraints and global uncertainties pose ongoing risks. A more structural approach to social protection and job creation is necessary to ensure inclusive recovery and sustainable growth.