2016年-FCA英国金融行为监管局_mlar_statistics_december_2016_summary_5页_382kb

报告摘要

MLAR Statistics: December 2016 Edition Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides detailed statistics on residential loans to individuals in the UK, including new business volumes, loan characteristics, loan book position, and arrears and possession data for both regulated and non-regulated loans. The data is presented in three main tables and includes quarterly figures for the years 2015 and 2016.

Main Tables and Key Information

Table (1): New Business Volumes and Characteristics

A. New Business Volumes

Gross Advances (in £ millions):
- Q2 2015: 52,560
- Q3 2015: 62,091
- Q4 2015: 63,084
- Q1 2016: 64,024
- Q2 2016: 58,057
Net Advances (in £ millions):
- Q2 2015: 9,954
- Q3 2015: 13,671
- Q4 2015: 14,208
- Q1 2016: 13,642
- Q2 2016: 11,715
New Commitments (in £ millions):
- Q2 2015: 59,562
- Q3 2015: 64,117
- Q4 2015: 59,460
- Q1 2016: 60,594
- Q2 2016: 68,128

B. New Business Characteristics (Gross Advances)

Percentage of business at fixed rates:
- Q2 2015: 78.92%
- Q3 2015: 80.66%
- Q4 2015: 84.09%
- Q1 2016: 81.43%
- Q2 2016: 82.27%
Weighted average interest rates:
- Fixed rate loans: Declined from 2.91% in Q2 2015 to 2.60% in Q2 2016.
- Variable rate loans: Declined from 2.50% in Q2 2015 to 2.35% in Q2 2016.
- All loans: Declined from 2.83% in Q2 2015 to 2.56% in Q2 2016.
Purpose of loan (as % of gross advances):
- House purchase: Declined from 67.53% in Q2 2015 to 63.00% in Q2 2016.
- Remortgage: Increased from 26.17% in Q2 2015 to 29.99% in Q2 2016.
- Other (including further advances): Declined from 31.28% in Q2 2015 to 27.91% in Q2 2016.

Table (2): Loan Book Position at End of Period

Unsecuritised loans (in £ millions):
- Q2 2015: 1,187,745
- Q3 2015: 1,197,765
- Q4 2015: 1,210,410
- Q1 2016: 1,222,471
- Q2 2016: 1,239,861
Securitised loans (in £ millions):
- Q2 2015: 84,213
- Q3 2015: 84,188
- Q4 2015: 81,011
- Q1 2016: 82,117
- Q2 2016: 76,378
Overall residential loans to individuals (in £ millions):
- Q2 2015: 1,271,957
- Q3 2015: 1,281,953
- Q4 2015: 1,291,421
- Q1 2016: 1,304,588
- Q2 2016: 1,316,240

Loan to Value (LTV) and Income Multiple

LTV: <=75%: Increased from 65.94% in Q2 2015 to 68.34% in Q1 2016.
LTV: Over 75% <=90%: Declined from 30.47% in Q2 2015 to 28.93% in Q1 2016.
LTV: Over 90% <=95%: Declined from 3.31% in Q2 2015 to 2.52% in Q1 2016.
LTV: Over 95%: Declined from 0.29% in Q2 2015 to 0.18% in Q1 2016.

Credit History

Loans with impaired credit history: Increased from 0.20% in Q2 2015 to 0.26% in Q2 2016.
Loans without impaired credit history: Declined from 99.80% in Q2 2015 to 99.74% in Q2 2016.

Table (3): Arrears and Possession Cases

Arrears Cases

Number of loan accounts in arrears:
- Q2 2015: 209,699
- Q3 2015: 196,136
- Q4 2015: 191,152
- Q1 2016: 206,428
- Q2 2016: 217,790
Balances outstanding in arrears:
- Q2 2015: £19,102 million
- Q3 2015: £18,125 million
- Q4 2015: £17,529 million
- Q1 2016: £17,687 million
- Q2 2016: £17,750 million
Arrears as % of total loan balances:
- Q2 2015: 1.50%
- Q3 2015: 1.41%
- Q4 2015: 1.36%
- Q1 2016: 1.36%
- Q2 2016: 1.35%
Arrears by severity:
- 1.5% < 2.5% in arrears: Declined from 0.47% in Q2 2015 to 0.38% in Q2 2016.
- 2.5% < 5% in arrears: Declined from 0.49% in Q2 2015 to 0.41% in Q2 2016.
- 5% < 7.5% in arrears: Declined from 0.20% in Q2 2015 to 0.18% in Q2 2016.
- 7.5% < 10% in arrears: Declined from 0.10% in Q2 2015 to 0.09% in Q2 2016.
- 10% or more in arrears: Increased from 0.19% in Q2 2015 to 0.24% in Q2 2016.
- In possession: Declined from 0.06% in Q2 2015 to 0.04% in Q2 2016.

Possession Cases

New possessions in quarter:
- Q2 2015: 2,671
- Q3 2015: 2,881
- Q4 2015: 2,392
- Q1 2016: 2,544
- Q2 2016: 2,282
Possession sales in quarter:
- Q2 2015: 3,705
- Q3 2015: 2,999
- Q4 2015: 2,868
- Q1 2016: 2,644
- Q2 2016: 2,383
Stock of possessions at end of quarter:
- Q2 2015: 5,249
- Q3 2015: 5,012
- Q4 2015: 4,421
- Q1 2016: 4,351
- Q2 2016: 4,195

Key Notes

Data Basis:
- The statistics are based on MLAR monitoring, which distinguishes between regulated and non-regulated loans.
- Regulated loans now include 2nd charge lending from Q1 2016 onwards.
- The arrears threshold is set at 1.5% or more of loan balances, which is lower than CML's 2.5% threshold, leading to higher arrears figures.
- The number of possession cases reflects loan accounts, not borrowers, and is higher than CML estimates due to the broader definition.
Comparative Measures:
- The CML measure focuses on borrowers in arrears, while this report includes all loan accounts.
- The number of loan accounts is materially higher than CML's mortgage count due to the inclusion of 2nd charge and further advances.
General Observations:
- There is a decline in overall arrears and possessions over the period, but some categories show increases.
- Fixed rate loans are becoming a larger proportion of new business.
- Remortgage activity is rising, indicating a shift in borrower behavior.

Summary of Trends

New business has seen a decline in gross and net advances in Q2 2016 compared to Q1 2016.
Fixed rate loans are increasing as a percentage of total new business.
Arrears are generally declining, but 10% or more in arrears is rising slightly.
Possession cases are declining, but still remain a small proportion of the loan book.
Regulated and non-regulated loan reporting has been standardized from Q1 2016 onwards.