世界银行-斯里兰卡发展最新消息，2024年4月：通往复苏的桥梁（英）-2024-20页_2mb

报告摘要

Sri Lanka's economy is showing initial stabilization signs after significant contraction (-7.3% yoy in 2022). Growth turned positive in the second half of 2023, driven by resurgent tourism and agriculture.
Inflation, which reached 69.8% yoy in September 2022, moderated significantly to 1.3% yoy by September 2023, though recent food price hikes pushed it up to 5.9% yoy in February 2024. Core inflation remains benign.
Interest rates started declining from a peak, and the Central Bank cut policy rates by 650 basis points since mid-2023.
Credit to the private sector began increasing month-on-month in early 2023. However, bank Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratios remain high, reflecting challenges in debt servicing.
The external sector showed improvement, with a current account surplus for the first time since 1977, supported by remittances and tourism. The LKR appreciated by 10.8% against the USD in 2023.

Outlook: Growth is expected to turn positive in 2024 and remain modest over the medium term, held back by crisis legacies, high taxes, and skilled worker emigration. Inflation is predicted to rise slightly in the short term before easing.
Current account is projected to be in surplus in 2024 as tourism and remittances recover. It may turn slightly negative by the medium term as economic activity picks up.
Poverty remains very high (estimated >22% by 2026) despite some economic recovery. Human capital investment has decreased. The fiscal position remains weak due to high interest bills, limiting government's ability for countercyclical policies.

Debt sustainability is fragile. A protracted or insufficiently deep debt restructuring remains a significant threat.
Ongoing reforms might face fatigue or reversal ahead of the 2024 elections.
Scarcer effects, job losses, and emigration could further hamper recovery. Sudden increases in imports/loans could pressure the rupee and reignite inflation.

The government requires a continued, robust implementation of the structural reform program adopted under the IMF's Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
Two key approaches are needed:
- Sustaining reforms that stabilize maco-fiscal finances, public debt management, and monetary policy.
- Pursuing reforms to encourage private investment and non-debt financing, such as SOE modernization and trade policy adjustments, to boost sustainable economic growth.

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