世界银行-尼日利亚发展最新消息，2023年12月-转危为安：从改革和重新燃起的希望到成果（英）-2023-64页_7mb

Recent Economic Developments and Outlook

In December 2023, Nigeria continued its reform journey to stabilize its economy and foster growth. Key reforms started in 2023 included the removal of the gasoline subsidy and liberalization of foreign exchange rates, aimed at boosting fiscal savings and attracting investments. However, these reforms led to higher inflation, currency depreciation, and increased poverty in the short term. The economy is expected to grow steadily in the medium term as reforms gain traction, but challenges remain in sustaining inflation control and deepening structural changes. External vulnerabilities, such as reliance on oil and trade protectionism, continue to pose risks. The government is exploring measures to enhance non-oil revenues, improve tax administration, and promote a more competitive business environment. Moving forward, coordinated efforts across fiscal, monetary, and trade policies will be critical to achieving macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.

Key Challenges

• Inflation and Fiscal Deficits: Inflation rose to 27.3% in October 2023, driven by subsidy removal and currency depreciation. High fiscal deficits, fueled by interest payments and personnel costs, limited the government's ability to consolidate spending. FX import restrictions and import bans further distorted markets, leading to price increases and reduced fiscal revenues.

• External Sector: The current account balance remains vulnerable due to weak oil and non-oil exports. FX reserves declined despite higher oil prices, and the parallel market premium varied widely, undermining market confidence.

• Financial Sector: Banks faced increased non-performing loans and strained capital buffers amid policy tightening. The removal of FX restrictions improved market liquidity but exacerbated trade evasion, highlighting the need for stronger enforcement.

• Structural Constraints: Longstanding issues like low human capital, insufficient infrastructure, and insecurity hinder economic diversification and inclusive growth, limiting the potential for sustained development.

Economic Outlook and Recommendations

Nigeria’s economic outlook is cautiously optimistic if reforms are sustained. Growth is projected at 3.5% average from 2023–2026, supported by reforms in services, industry, and oil. Inflation is expected to decline over time through tighter policy coordination. To realize these gains, policy actions should focus on:

• Safeguarding the revenue gains from subsidy reforms to ensure they benefit the federation.
• Bolstering non-oil revenues through tax reforms, including VAT increases and better enforcement against evasion.
• Strengthening monetary policy transmission and fiscal discipline to reduce inflation and debt pressures.
• Ending reliance on Ways and Means financing and promoting private sector-led growth.
• Implementing complementary trade and investment reforms to enhance economic diversification and social protection for vulnerable households.

As reforms deepen, Nigeria can mitigate current challenges and accelerate convergence toward a more resilient and high-growth trajectory.