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Mongolia: Assessment Summary for the Asian Development Bank (October 23, 2008)

Core Content

This document presents an assessment of Mongolia's macroeconomic conditions and outlook, based on the 2008 IMF Article IV Consultation and developments up to September 2008. It outlines recent economic performance, policy measures, and future challenges, with a focus on inflation, fiscal and monetary policies, current account balance, and financial sector stability.

Main Economic Developments

• Economic Growth: Mongolia's real GDP growth remained strong, at 10 percent in 2007 and is projected to continue at the same rate in 2008, driven by agriculture and services.
• Inflation: Inflation rose sharply from 6 percent (yoy) in June 2007 to 34 percent in August, then declined to 32 percent in September due to falling food prices.
• Policy Measures: Authorities implemented temporary VAT and customs duty exemptions on wheat and flour imports, built up reserves, and provided subsidies to reduce interest expenses for petroleum importers.

Fiscal Policy Performance

• Expansionary Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy was expansionary, with a 2008 budget deficit of 0.3 percent of GDP, though the fiscal outcome was broadly balanced up to September.
• Revenue Sources: Strong mineral revenue, driven by high copper and gold prices, and increased import tax revenues supported the fiscal position.
• Expenditures: Government spending, especially on wages and capital, increased sharply, narrowing the fiscal surplus from 8 percent of GDP in 2006 to 3 percent in 2007.

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate

• Monetary Tightening: The Bank of Mongolia (BOM) tightened monetary policy by increasing foreign exchange sales and raising the policy rate by 185 basis points.
• Credit Growth: Despite monetary tightening, credit growth remained rapid at 47 percent in August, with lending rates still negative in real terms.
• Exchange Rate Flexibility: A more flexible exchange rate policy is needed to adjust to external shocks, rather than relying solely on foreign exchange operations.

Current Account and External Stability

• Current Account Deficit: The current account turned into a deficit of 14 percent of GDP in August due to rapid import growth and high food and oil prices.
• Reserve Coverage: Gross international reserves remained comfortable at $880 million, covering about 3.5 months of nonmining imports.
• Debt Levels: The net present value (NPV) of external public debt is estimated at 20 percent of GDP at the end of 2008.

Outlook and Challenges

• Near-Term Outlook: Economic growth is expected to moderate to about 8 percent in 2009 due to declining mineral prices.
• Downside Risks: Risks include further declines in mineral prices, reduced export revenues, and potential sharp declines in mining-related foreign direct investment (FDI).
• Medium-Term Outlook: Mongolia's growth prospects remain favorable due to its vast mineral resources, with the opening of new mines expected to boost output. However, the current account is projected to remain in deficit for the next three years before returning to surplus.

Policy Recommendations

• Inflation Control: Tight fiscal and monetary policies are essential to manage inflationary pressures and provide fiscal space.
• Fiscal Framework: A nonmineral balance target should be established as a medium-term fiscal anchor to reduce procyclical spending.
• Debt Management: Large-scale commercial borrowing and wealth distribution should be approached cautiously to avoid inflation and increased debt-to-GDP ratios.
• Financial Sector Strengthening: Continued efforts to strengthen financial sector supervision, including monitoring large exposures and enacting draft laws for nonbank institutions, are necessary. Loan quality monitoring should also be enhanced.

Fund Relations

• IMF Engagement: The IMF has maintained close surveillance and provided over 20 technical assistance missions since 2007.
• Quota Obligations: Total outstanding obligations to the IMF amounted to SDR 14 million (27 percent of quota) as of September 2008.
• Collaboration: The IMF is working in collaboration with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to support policy dialogue and technical assistance.