2008年-世界发展银行全球_Mongolia_Quarterly_June_2008_21页_611kb

Mongolia Quarterly Summary - June 2008

Core Content

The Mongolia Quarterly from the World Bank provides an overview of recent economic and social developments, focusing on economic growth, inflation, fiscal policy, and the impact of rising commodity prices on the country's economy. It also highlights the World Bank's ongoing work in Mongolia and the policy implications of these trends.

Main Economic Developments

GDP Growth

• GDP growth accelerated in the first quarter of 2008, reaching 10.2% yoy, up from 9.9% yoy in the previous quarter.
• The service sector and net taxes on products (particularly due to the Windfall tax on gold and copper) contributed significantly to the growth.
• Quarterly GDP data was first released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in April 2008, enabling better analysis of seasonal economic patterns.

Sectoral Contributions

• Agriculture is the most seasonal sector, with only 5% of value-added production in Q1.
• Industry and services also show seasonal patterns, though with a smaller magnitude.
• Export growth is concentrated in metals and minerals, while import growth is driven by petroleum and related products, transport vehicles, and cellulose and paper.

Inflation

• Inflation reached 27.2% yoy in April 2008, the highest in East Asia.
• Food inflation was 48.5% yoy, the main driver.
• The Bank of Mongolia tightened monetary policy by increasing the policy rate by 1.35 percentage points to 9.75%.
• Broad money (M2) growth was 30.9% yoy in April 2008, a significant slowdown from the 56.3% growth in 2007.
• Lending growth has been over 60% yoy, with deposits growing at 40-50% yoy in 2006-2007, but slowing down in recent months.

Currency Depreciation

• The Togrog (MNT) has been depreciating against the Chinese Renminbi (CNY) and Russian Ruble (RUB).
• The Togrog is de facto pegged to the US dollar, which has been depreciating against these currencies, adding to import price inflation.

Key Financial Indicators

• Financial system stability remains intact, with capital adequacy stable and non-performing loans (NPLs) decreasing.
• The NPL ratio fell to below 3% in 2008.
• Procyclicality in fiscal policy is evident, with fiscal impulse at 7.2% of GDP in 2007 and over 5% of GDP in 2008.
• Debt sustainability is currently low risk, with public external debt as a percentage of GDP decreasing from 76% in 2000 to 39.4% in 2007.
• The medium-term debt management strategy is in place and should be reviewed and updated annually.

Commodity Price Trends

Copper Prices

• Copper prices remained high at near $9,000/mt in early 2008.
• China's demand for metals has surged, contributing to price increases.
• Supply constraints, such as declining ore grades, lack of equipment, power shortages, and project delays, have kept prices elevated.
• Copper prices are expected to decline as supply increases and the market moves toward surplus, particularly from the Americas and Africa.

Oil Prices

• Oil prices increased by 10.5% yoy after the government stopped subsidies in March 2008.
• The direct impact of oil price increases on CPI inflation is limited (less than 1%), but indirect effects through higher production costs are significant.
• Fuel accounts for 50% of total production costs, particularly in transportation.
• Mongolia became an official oil producer in June 2008, with crude oil extraction expected to reach 50% of total petroleum product consumption by 2010.

Fiscal Policy and Revenue

• Revenue policy for 2008 is mostly unchanged, with a focus on improving tax administration.
• Total revenue collection is projected at 44% of GDP.
• Corporation income tax and value added tax are expected to rise by 48% due to high commodity prices and economic growth.
• Spending is budgeted at 47% of GDP, an increase of 8% yoy.
• Domestic investment increased by 53%, reaching 13% of GDP.
• Wages and salaries have increased by 61.6% yoy, contributing to inflationary pressures.

Social and Economic Challenges

• Employment growth has slowed, with industrial employment decreasing by 6 percentage points yoy.
• Services are likely the most dynamic sector in terms of job creation.
• Real estate prices are rising due to increased wages and construction costs.
• Food price increases affect poor consumers, especially urban poor, but the impact is mitigated due to rising incomes.
• Consumption patterns are shifting toward more diversified products, with meat consumption declining and flour, potatoes, and vegetables becoming more popular.

Policy Recommendations

• Create a stabilization and saving fund to smooth out mining revenues and insulate the economy from price volatility.
• Transfer all mining revenues (including windfall tax, corporate tax, royalties, and dividends) to this fund.
• Define fiscal rules that ensure:
  • Sustainable spending and intergenerational equity.
  • Isolation from copper price volatility.
  • Moderate real exchange appreciation to maintain long-term competitiveness.
• Control non-mineral deficits through fiscal discipline and good governance.
• Avoid further cash injections into the economy to prevent higher inflation.

Special Focus: Pension Challenges and Reform Options

• Pension challenges are highlighted, with policy options proposed to ensure long-term sustainability.
• Reform needs include improving pension fund management, enhancing financial inclusion, and addressing demographic pressures.

Conclusion

The Mongolia Quarterly outlines a mixed economic outlook, with strong growth in key sectors, high inflation, and increasing fiscal pressures. The policy focus is on stabilizing the economy, managing debt, and reforming the fiscal system to ensure long-term sustainability and equity. The importance of copper and oil prices, seasonal economic patterns, and fiscal discipline are central to the analysis.