2018全球生命科学展望（英文版）_39页_1mb

2018 Global Life Sciences Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Global Life Sciences Outlook highlights the transformative impact of emerging technologies on the life sciences industry, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt and innovate in response to a rapidly evolving landscape. It outlines key growth trends, M&A activities, and regulatory developments across pharmaceuticals, biologics, biosimilars, medtech, and personalized medicine. The report also explores the role of AI, 3D printing, and blockchain in reshaping drug discovery, manufacturing, and supply chain operations.

Main Points and Key Information

Growth Trends

• Pharmaceutical Drugs:

  • Global prescription drug sales are expected to grow at an annual compound rate of 6.5% over the next five years, reaching $1.06 trillion in 2022.
  • The industry will continue to face challenges in R&D returns, with increased competition and pricing pressures.
  • Orphan drugs will see significant growth, expected to reach $209 billion by 2022, despite pricing scrutiny and reduced tax credits under the new US tax law.

• Biologics and Biosimilars:

  • Biologics are projected to make up over 25% of the pharmaceutical market by 2020.
  • Biosimilars are gaining traction due to affordability and access concerns, especially in emerging markets.
  • The Asia-Pacific region, led by China, is a key player in biosimilar development.

• Generics:

  • Global generic drug sales are expected to account for 29.2% of total pharmaceutical sales in 2022, up from 28% in 2017.
  • Generics are a major driver of cost reduction in health care, with many high-value products losing patent protection.

• Therapeutic Focus:

  • Oncology is the leading therapy area in sales, expected to reach 17.5% of prescription drug and OTC sales by 2022.
  • Other high-growth areas include immunosuppressants, dermatologicals, and anti-coagulants.

• Personalized Medicine:

  • The global personalized medicine market is forecast to reach $2.4 trillion by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 11.8%.
  • Over 40% of all compounds and 70% of oncology compounds have the potential to be personalized medicines.
  • Real-world data and AI are accelerating the development of these therapies.

• Medtech:

  • Medtech sales are projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.1%, reaching $521.9 billion by 2022.
  • In vitro diagnostics will remain the largest segment, expected to reach $70 billion in 2022.
  • Medtech R&D spending is forecast to grow to $33.5 billion by 2022, with a decline in R&D investment as a percentage of sales.

M&A Investment Trends

• 2017 saw a decline in deal value due to global economic and political uncertainty.
• 2018 is expected to see an increase in deal volume and value, driven by:
  • Reduced uncertainty from US tax reform, Brexit progress, and China's outbound deal-making policy.
  • Strong capital markets and the fragmented nature of the life sciences industry.
  • Non-traditional, technology-oriented M&A strategies are becoming more prevalent.
• Biopharma has significantly higher partnership activity than medtech, with over 3 times the number of strategic alliances.

Embracing Technological and Geopolitical Changes

• Exponential Technological Changes:

  • AI, automation, and cloud computing are transforming R&D and manufacturing processes.
  • 3D printing is being explored for personalized medicine and medical device manufacturing.
  • Gene therapy is emerging as a promising treatment for rare diseases, with 34 gene therapies in the final FDA approval stage and 470 in clinical trials.

• Regulatory Developments:

  • The FDA is developing a new framework for regenerative cell therapies and is exploring a "Pre-Cert" program to streamline digital health approvals.
  • The 21st Century Cures Act is expected to bring clarity on software-related regulatory provisions.
  • The US administration is pushing for policy changes to reduce drug prices, while the medtech sector continues to face the 2.3% medical device excise tax.

• Geopolitical Impacts:

  • The US tax reform may reduce the orphan drug tax credit by 40%, but not significantly alter company strategies due to the value of market exclusivity and regulatory benefits.
  • Brexit poses challenges for the UK in maintaining its position as a pharma hub, but the government is working to secure commitments from industry stakeholders.
  • The UK's regulatory and tech changes are seen as an opportunity for continued innovation post-Brexit.

Technology and Innovation in the Industry

• AI in Drug Discovery:

  • AI is being used to analyze large datasets and accelerate hypothesis development and drug discovery.
  • It improves efficiency and accuracy in repetitive tasks and supports better decision-making in clinical trials.

• Cloud Computing:

  • Cloud technologies are increasingly adopted for scalability, speed, and data management.
  • Over 60% of life sciences leaders view scalability as a top priority, with cloud enabling on-demand data and computing resources.

• Blockchain in Pharma:

  • Blockchain is being explored to secure patient data and track drug performance.
  • It enables smart contracts and secure evidence sharing between regulators and collaborators.

• Cybersecurity:

  • Cyber threats are growing in scale and complexity, requiring increased investment in cognitive AI and cloud-based security solutions.
  • By 2021, biometric authentication is expected to be used in half of all online transactions.

Talent and Workforce Trends

• The demand for data, analytical, and AI expertise is rising, but talent is scarce.
• Most companies are training in-house statisticians rather than recruiting from other life sciences firms.
• Companies must provide opportunities for data scientists to maximize their skillsets and offer upward mobility to retain talent, otherwise they risk losing it to startups and other industries.

Conclusion

The life sciences industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by technological advancements, changing regulatory environments, and geopolitical shifts. Companies are adapting by building flexible organizations, embracing data integrity, and focusing on patient-centric approaches. The future will be shaped by innovation in personalized medicine, AI, and digital health technologies, as well as the strategic use of M&A and partnerships to access new capabilities. However, challenges such as pricing pressures, regulatory complexity, and talent scarcity remain critical areas of focus for sustainable growth and competitiveness.