世界能源统计年鉴2021-74页_7mb

Summary of Statistical Review of World Energy (70th Edition, 2021)

Core Content

The 70th edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy provides a comprehensive overview of global energy consumption, production, and emissions in 2020, highlighting the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy sector. It serves as a critical reference for understanding the scale of the energy market's transformation during this period.

Main Points

• Global Energy Demand and Emissions:

  • Global primary energy consumption fell by 4.5% in 2020, the largest decline since 1945.
  • Carbon emissions from energy use dropped by 6.3%, also the largest decline since World War II, bringing emissions back to levels last seen in 2011.
  • The carbon intensity of the energy mix also fell by 1.8%, indicating a more efficient energy system.

• Energy Demand by Fuel:

  • Oil demand fell by 9.3%, the largest decline in history, contributing to 75% of the total drop in energy consumption.
  • Natural gas consumption decreased by 2.3%, but its share in the energy mix reached a record 24.7%.
  • Coal consumption dropped by 4.2%, with the largest declines in the US and India, while China and Malaysia saw increases.

• Renewable Energy Growth:

  • Renewable energy (excluding hydro) increased by 9.7%, the slowest growth rate in a decade, but the absolute increase in energy terms was similar to previous years.
  • Wind and solar saw the most significant growth, with wind contributing the largest share of the increase.
  • Solar capacity expanded by 127 GW, and wind capacity by 111 GW, both near double their previous annual increases.
  • Hydroelectricity grew by 1.0%, while nuclear energy fell by 4.1%.

• Electricity:

  • Electricity generation fell by 0.9%, the second-largest decline since 1985.
  • The share of renewables in electricity generation increased from 10.3% to 11.7%.
  • Coal's share in electricity generation dropped to 35.1%, a new low in the data series.

• Oil and Gas Markets:

  • Oil prices fell to a 41.84 / bbl average in 2020, the lowest since 2004.
  • Oil production declined by 6.6 million bbl/d, with OPEC+ accounting for two-thirds of the drop.
  • Refinery utilization dropped to 74.1%, the lowest since 1985.
  • Natural gas prices also reached multi-year lows, with LNG prices hitting a record $4.39/mmBtu.
  • Inter-regional gas trade fell by 5.3%, primarily due to a sharp decline in pipeline trade.

• Key Minerals:

  • Lithium production fell by 4.6%, while Cobalt production increased by 2.9%.
  • Rare earth metals production rose by 23.2%, driven by growth in Australia and the US.

• Economic and Environmental Impact:

  • The pandemic led to the largest peacetime recession since the Great Depression, with global GDP estimated to fall by over 3.5%.
  • The economic scarring will likely persist for many years, especially in the poorest economies.
  • The drop in emissions was driven by reduced economic activity, suggesting that the decline may be reversible as economies recover.

• Future Outlook:

  • The transition to net zero is expected to continue, with renewables playing a key role.
  • COP26 in Glasgow is seen as a pivotal moment for global climate action.
  • Energy efficiency and the expansion of natural gas alongside renewables are highlighted as important steps for emerging economies.

Key Information

• 2020 was a year of unprecedented volatility in energy markets due to the pandemic.
• The drop in energy demand and carbon emissions was larger than expected, with oil demand falling more sharply than anticipated.
• The resilience of renewables was notable, with wind and solar showing strong growth despite the global downturn.
• The predicted decline in energy demand was significantly exceeded, with 4.5% actual fall versus 2.5% predicted.
• Renewable power generation increased by 358 TWh, the largest ever, with wind and solar driving the growth.
• The reduction in coal was not enough to offset the overall trend, as coal generation remained unchanged from 2015 levels.
• The implied carbon price from the drop in emissions was $1400 per tonne, highlighting the economic impact of the pandemic on the energy sector.

Conclusion

The 2020 edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy underscores the dramatic effects of the pandemic on energy markets and the environment. While the drop in emissions was historic, it is unlikely to be sustained without systemic changes in energy production and consumption. The transition to a net-zero energy system requires coordinated efforts from governments, companies, and society to reduce emissions and increase the share of renewables. The role of existing energy companies in this transition is critical, as they must decarbonize and adapt to the new energy landscape.