2010年-世界发展银行全球_The_Global_Apparel_Value_Chain_Trade_and_the_Crisis___Challenges_and_Opportunities_for_Developing_Countries_42页_1mb

Summary of "The Global Apparel Value Chain, Trade and the Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities for Developing Countries"

Core Content

This paper analyzes the impact of two major crises on the global apparel value chain: the phase-out of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) in 2005 and the current economic recession. It explores how these crises have reshaped trade patterns, supply chains, and the roles of developing countries in the global apparel industry.

Main Crises and Their Impacts

A. MFA Phase-Out in 2005

• Background: The MFA, established in the early 1970s, imposed quotas and preferential tariffs on apparel and textile imports by the U.S., Canada, and European nations.
• Impact: The phase-out allowed poor and small economies to access markets previously restricted by quotas. This led to a reconfiguration of the supply chain, with low-wage countries like Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam becoming more prominent in apparel assembly.
• Outcome: The removal of quotas in 2005 marked the end of over 30 years of trade restrictions, leading to a significant shift in the global geography of apparel production and trade. It also prompted a restructuring of firm strategies to align with new economic and political realities.

B. Current Economic Crisis and Its Impact on Global Apparel Supply and Demand

• Global Concentration: Apparel consumption is highly concentrated in the U.S., EU, and Japan, which together accounted for over 75% of world apparel imports in 2008, down from 82.4% in 1995.

• Impact on Importers:

  • U.S.: In 2008, U.S. consumers spent $200 billion on apparel, down 3.6% from 2007. Apparel import penetration in the U.S. reached 94% in 2006.
  • EU-15: In 2008, the EU accounted for 41% of global apparel retail sales. China became the largest supplier, with a 24% share of EU-15 apparel imports in 2009.
  • Japan: Japan heavily relies on apparel imports, with China representing 83% of total imports in 2008. The top five importers accounted for 93.9% of total imports in 2008.

• Economic Recession Effects: The recession led to a decline in consumer demand, resulting in fewer orders and market shrinkage for developing countries. However, the negative impact was not immediately visible in 2008 import statistics, as some regions experienced growth.

Key Trends in the Global Apparel Value Chain

• Global Consolidation: Leading apparel suppliers (both countries and firms) have strengthened their positions, leading to a more streamlined global supply chain.
• China's Dominance: China has emerged as the clear winner in the global apparel export race, increasing its share of global exports from 15.2% in 1995 to 33.2% in 2008.
• Role of Developing Countries: While China dominates, Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam have also expanded their roles. These countries have benefited from trade agreements and preferential tariffs, especially the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program.
• Shift in Import Shares: The U.S. share of global apparel imports declined from 32.1% in 2000 to 22.0% in 2008, while Japan's share dropped from 11.5% to 6.9%. Mexico and the DR-CAFTA region also saw significant declines in their import shares.
• Trade Restrictions: Despite the MFA phase-out, trade restrictions still exist, particularly in the U.S., which excludes textiles and apparel from its GSP agreements, unlike the EU, which includes them.

Upgrading Strategies and Recommendations

• Upgrading Opportunities: Developing countries can benefit from upgrading their positions in the global value chain through improved productivity, technology, and access to higher value-added activities.
• Strategic Options: The paper suggests that developing countries should focus on improving their manufacturing capabilities, diversifying their export markets, and enhancing their participation in global sourcing and production networks.
• Recommendations: Policy recommendations include supporting local industries, enhancing trade relations, and promoting sustainable and inclusive growth strategies to adapt to the challenges posed by the crises.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while the MFA phase-out and economic recession have presented challenges, they have also created opportunities for developing countries to upgrade their positions in the global apparel value chain. It emphasizes the need for strategic adaptation and policy support to ensure sustainable growth and development in the industry.