2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_San_Marino_Staff_Report_for_the_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_57页_1mb

Summary of the 2012 Article IV Consultation with San Marino

Core Content

The 2012 Article IV Consultation with San Marino, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic and financial situation, focusing on the challenges posed by a prolonged recession, the shrinking and vulnerable financial sector, and the need for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms.

Main Points

Economic Context and Challenges

• San Marino's economy is in a long-term recovery phase after a severe recession.
• The country's reliance on its tax haven status has led to a permanent loss of output due to the global financial crisis and Italy's inclusion of San Marino on a 'blacklist' of tax haven countries.
• The economy has contracted by about 22% between 2008 and 2011, with most of the decline being permanent.
• Tourism is the only sector showing robust growth, but its contribution to GDP remains limited.

Financial Sector Issues

• The banking sector has experienced significant balance sheet compression and rising vulnerabilities.
• A major loss of deposits, especially from Italian customers, has led to liquidity and profitability challenges.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) have increased, mainly due to weak economic conditions and corporate defaults.
• The largest bank, Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica di San Marino (CRSM), requires recapitalization, with a proposed €150 million plan.
• The Central Bank of San Marino (CBSM) has limited capacity to act as a lender of last resort and does not have access to the ECB window.
• Stress tests show that the banking system is highly vulnerable, with potential recapitalization needs reaching over 10% of GDP in a benign scenario and more than 20% in an adverse one.

Fiscal Policy Issues

• Tax revenues have declined significantly, more than 30% in real terms over four years, due to the shrinking financial sector and recession.
• The fiscal deficit has widened, with projections indicating a deficit of around 3.25% of GDP in 2012.
• The government has taken steps to reduce the deficit, including extending a surtax on income, introducing a special property tax, and imposing a minimum corporate tax.
• These measures are expected to generate about 1% of GDP in additional revenues.
• The government is also implementing structural reforms, including simplifying the tax system and reducing public sector costs.

Structural and Other Policy Issues

• Efforts to improve transparency and compliance with international standards have been made, but more work is needed in areas such as AML/CFT supervision and customer due diligence.
• Structural reforms in product and labor markets are underway but require further progress.
• The statistical system is in need of improvement to better track economic performance and support policy-making.

Key Information

• The IMF staff report was completed on April 11, 2012, following discussions with San Marino officials from February 21 to March 2, 2012.
• The Executive Board reviewed the report on April 27, 2012, and issued a Public Information Notice (PIN) summarizing its findings.
• The financial sector is a central concern, with significant liquidity and capital issues.
• CRSM is the main focus of the recapitalization plan, which is still under consideration.
• Fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure debt sustainability, with the need for more ambitious reforms.
• The economic outlook remains weak, with risks of further recession and financial sector stress, especially due to the impact of Italy's economic conditions.
• San Marino's economy is heavily dependent on Italy, with 90% of its exports going to the country.
• The government is emphasizing the need for a sustainable business model and improved regulatory frameworks.

Conclusion

The 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights San Marino's ongoing economic and financial challenges, particularly the impact of losing its tax haven status and the resulting recession. The financial sector requires substantial recapitalization and structural reform, while the fiscal position is deteriorating and needs long-term consolidation. The normalization of relations with Italy and the development of a new, more sustainable business model are critical to the country's recovery.