2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_San_Marino_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_52页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 17/86: Republic of San Marino

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 17/86 outlines the findings of the 2017 Article IV consultation with the Republic of San Marino. It highlights the country's economic recovery, ongoing financial sector challenges, fiscal constraints, and the need for structural reforms to support sustainable growth. The report includes a Press Release, Staff Report, Executive Director Statement, and various annexes and figures.

Main Points and Key Recommendations

Economic Recovery and Performance

• Economic Recovery: San Marino's economy began a slow recovery in 2015 after a deep recession from 2008–2014. GDP growth reached 0.5% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016, with employment rising and the unemployment rate declining to 8.5% in December 2016.
• Growth Outlook: Moderate growth is expected in the near and medium term, with GDP growth projected at 1.2% in 2017 and 1.3% in the medium term. However, the pace is insufficient to restore pre-crisis output levels by 2020.
• Inflation: CPI inflation has remained low, influenced by weak domestic demand and falling commodity prices. Core inflation is also near 0.5%.

Financial Sector Challenges

• Nonperforming Loans (NPLs): NPLs remain very high, at about 43% of total loans (36% net of provisions) and 113% of GDP. Over half of these NPLs belong to non-resident clients.
• Capital Adequacy: The banking system's capital adequacy ratio was 13.6% in September 2016, but weak asset quality and low provisions may overstate the true capital position.
• Banking System Weakness: The banking sector continues to face high NPLs, low profitability, and limited capacity to respond to shocks. The largest bank, Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica di San Marino (CRSM), remains a key focus of reform.

Fiscal Position

• Public Finances: Public debt reached 21.5% of GDP in 2016, with a small deficit of 0.5% of GDP. Public finances have limited space to respond to future shocks and support growth.
• Fiscal Adjustment: A gradual fiscal adjustment is recommended, targeting a modest surplus by 2019 to rebuild fiscal buffers.
• VAT Introduction: The introduction of a VAT system is seen as a key revenue-enhancing measure.
• Pension Reform: Containing pension spending through reform is essential for long-term fiscal sustainability.

Structural Reforms

• Business Environment: Improving the business environment and increasing labor market flexibility is crucial to attract investment and boost growth.
• Competitiveness: Enhancing competitiveness is a major challenge, as the real effective exchange rate (REER) has remained above its 10-year average, and exports have declined significantly over the past decade.
• Education and Training: Long-term investments in education and vocational training are encouraged to improve productivity and workforce skills.

Key Policy Recommendations

Financial Sector

• Complete the Asset Quality Review (AQR) and implement plans to repair bank balance sheets.
• Accelerate NPL resolution by removing legal, regulatory, and tax obstacles.
• Anchor CRSM's restructuring strategy on AQR findings and ensure long-term viability.
• Revamp bank supervision and develop a robust macroprudential framework.
• Explore outsourcing arrangements for NPL management with Italian companies.
• Harmonize NPL definitions with international standards and improve data collection.

Fiscal Policy

• Rebuild fiscal buffers through a gradual adjustment to achieve a modest surplus by 2019.
• Implement a VAT system to increase revenue.
• Reform the pension system to contain public spending.
• Prepare contingency plans for potential fiscal costs from bank restructuring.
• Enhance access to external financing to reduce the bank-sovereign loop.

Structural Reforms

• Improve the business environment to attract more investment.
• Focus on international cooperation, especially in AML/CFT and financial transparency.
• Enhance labor market flexibility and promote cross-border economic activity.

Implementation Progress

• AQR Launch: The Central Bank of San Marino (CBSM) launched an AQR in November 2016.
• CRSM Recapitalization: The fourth recapitalization of CRSM was completed in 2016, including a €40 million state subscription, €13 million real estate revaluation, and €9 million reserve creation.
• VAT Introduction: Pending, but expected to be implemented in the future.
• AML/CFT Risk Assessment: Completed in 2016, with ongoing efforts to implement the action plan.
• Central Bank Reforms: The CBSM has initiated an internal audit to strengthen supervision and compliance, and is preparing to launch a credit registry.

Risks and Outlook

• Downside Risks: Lingering weaknesses in the banking system, including high NPLs and low profitability, could hinder growth. Structural weaknesses in Italy and the euro area may also slow San Marino's recovery.
• Upward Risks: Improved international relations and stronger performance in industrial and service sectors could lead to faster-than-expected growth.
• Long-Term Outlook: San Marino is expected to reach pre-2009 GDP levels only by the end of the 2020s, emphasizing the need for continued financial and structural reforms.

Summary of Key Indicators

Conclusion

The Republic of San Marino is in a phase of modest economic recovery following a severe financial crisis. The IMF highlights the need for continued financial sector reforms, fiscal adjustments, and structural changes to ensure long-term stability and growth. The country has made progress in some areas, such as initiating an AQR and improving transparency, but faces significant challenges in restoring the banking system and enhancing competitiveness. The authorities are encouraged to implement a credible restructuring plan for CRSM, strengthen fiscal buffers, and improve the business environment to support sustainable economic development.