2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_San_Marino_Staff_Report_for_the_2015_Article_IV_Consultation_40页_1mb

Summary of the 2015 Article IV Consultation for the Republic of San Marino

Core Content

The 2015 Article IV consultation of the Republic of San Marino, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), assessed the country's economic developments and policy framework. The consultation focused on financial sector restructuring, fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and international cooperation, with the aim of supporting sustainable growth and financial stability in the aftermath of several economic shocks.

Main Issues and Views

Economic Context and Outlook

• San Marino's economy suffered a significant decline, losing a third of its output since 2008 due to the collapse of its offshore banking model, the global financial crisis, and Italy's decision to place it on a tax blacklist.
• The country's largest bank, Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica di San Marino (CRSM), required three bailouts, with public support amounting to 13% of GDP.
• The economy showed tentative stabilization in 2014, with GDP shrinking by 1% and a modest recovery expected in 2015. However, unemployment remains above 8%.
• The banking system remains in transition, with nonperforming loans (NPLs) at over 40% of total loans, and the economy is expected to face continued challenges in the medium term.

Risks

• Downside risks persist due to the weak financial sector, prolonged slow growth in Italy and the euro area, and the potential for a negative bank-sovereign feedback loop.
• The NPL coverage ratio is low compared to historical levels and international standards, raising concerns about capital adequacy and financial stability.

Key Policy Recommendations

Financial Sector

• Asset Quality Review (AQR): Conduct thorough AQRs to establish accurate loan classification, collateral valuations, and expected losses. These should be based on ongoing on-site inspections by the Central Bank of San Marino (CBSM).
• Provisioning: Encourage banks to increase provisions ahead of AQR results and enforce compliance with provisioning rules. Introduce more stringent requirements to ensure adequate future coverage.
• Capitalization: Address capital shortfalls by retaining earnings or presenting market-based recapitalization plans. The CBSM should support banks in meeting regulatory capital requirements.
• Resolution: Implement best international practices for resolving undercapitalized banks, including full unconditionally dilution of shareholders for systemically important institutions.
• Basel III Adoption: Support the adoption of Basel III standards, focusing on improving the supervisory and resolution framework, particularly liquidity buffers and deposit insurance systems.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Consolidation: Pursue a gradual consolidation of 2.5% of GDP over five years to bring public debt to a sustainable path.
• Expenditure Reduction: Focus on reducing the public sector wage bill, pensions, and health benefits. The authorities should continue to cut current expenditure and reduce the deficit.
• Revenue Enhancement: Explore additional revenue sources, such as a real estate tax or higher VAT rates. However, the authorities are cautious about the feasibility of a real estate tax and the inflationary effects of increasing VAT.
• Debt Sustainability: Rebuild fiscal buffers to withstand potential shocks. Debt is projected to rise to 27% of GDP by 2020 under current policies.

Structural Policies and International Cooperation

• Business Environment: Improve the business environment through streamlined processes for business registration and property registration. A new credit registry should enhance access to credit.
• Labor Market Reforms: Implement labor market reforms and vocational training to improve employment and productivity. Encourage hiring of nonresidents and support high-tech industries.
• International Integration: Continue to integrate into international markets, particularly the Italian region of Emilia-Romagna, and enhance cooperation with Italy to support economic growth and stability.
• Market Access for Sovereign: Establish market access for the government to diversify funding sources, even if it involves higher costs.

Traction of Past IMF Advice

• The authorities have taken steps to implement past IMF recommendations, including recapitalizing CRSM.
• However, the modalities of restructuring did not fully align with best practices, leaving the bank still undercapitalized.

Authorities' Views

• The authorities acknowledge the need for financial sector restructuring and fiscal consolidation.
• They see potential for growth through improved international cooperation and the ability of banks to operate in Italy as deposit-taking institutions.
• They are cautious about the impact of a real estate tax and a higher VAT rate, and are exploring options for accessing international capital markets.

Key Documents

• Staff Report: Completed on March 6, 2015, following discussions with San Marino officials from January 19–28, 2015.
• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's views on the consultation.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Provides an official perspective on the consultation outcomes.

Conclusion

The 2015 Article IV consultation highlights the need for San Marino to transition from its outdated financial model, implement structural reforms to enhance competitiveness, and ensure fiscal sustainability. The IMF recommends a comprehensive approach involving financial sector restructuring, fiscal consolidation, and international integration to support long-term economic growth and stability.