2005年-世界发展银行全球_Thailand___Northeast_Economic_Development_Report_229页_6mb

Thailand Northeast Economic Development Report Summary (November 2005)

Core Content

This report focuses on the economic development of the Northeast region of Thailand, highlighting its growth, poverty reduction, and the challenges it faces in achieving more balanced development.

Main Topics

• Economic Record: Analysis of the region's economic performance over the past decades.
• Constraints to Development: Identification of factors limiting the region's growth.
• Strategies for Development: Recommendations for promoting growth and reducing poverty.

Key Findings

Economic Growth

• The Northeast has experienced rapid growth, with an average per capita growth rate of 3.3% since 1970, comparable to Latin America, South Asia, and high-income countries.
• GDP per capita increased from Bt11,000 in 1970 to Bt34,000 in 2004 (1988 prices), and GNI per capita rose from US$94 to US$740.
• Economic structure has evolved: agriculture now accounts for less than one-fifth of GDP, while industry and services have grown significantly. The service sector now contributes over three-fifths of GDP.

Poverty Reduction

• Poverty headcount dropped from 48% in 1988 to 17% in 2002.
• The number of poor decreased from 9 million to 4 million despite population growth.
• Improved living standards are evident in higher income, consumption, and ownership of durable goods (e.g., refrigerators, TVs).
• Self-assessment of poverty shows that lack of food is no longer a common attribute of poverty.

Community Strength

• Strong social capital and community life are key characteristics of the Northeast.
• Kinship networks, land ownership, and Buddhist values contribute to resilient communities.
• Over 90% of households participate in local groups and social services.

Constraints to Growth

• The Northeast's growth rate is lower than other Thai regions, lagging by 1 percentage point annually since 1970.
• Labor productivity is significantly lower than in other regions: in 2004, it was only one-sixth of Bangkok's and just over two-thirds of the North's.
• The productivity gap has widened since 1990, with the Northeast falling behind the East by 7.7% and the North by 0.4%.

Regional Disparities

• The region's contribution to national GDP fell from 16% to 9%, despite a stable population share.
• Urbanization and industrialization have not been as pronounced in the Northeast as in other parts of Thailand.
• The region has not participated as actively in national and international economic growth as expected.

Key Sectors

Enterprises

• Manufacturing: Growth in value added and employment, though concentrated in certain areas.
• BOI Zones: The Board of Investment has promoted industrial development, but the region's participation in these zones is limited.
• Firm Productivity: Productivity levels are lower, and technological capability remains a challenge.
• Exports: The Northeast has a growing role in exports, particularly in rice and silk.

Workers

• Labor Market: A significant portion of the workforce is engaged in agriculture, but there are shifts towards industry and services.
• Wages and Skills: Wage employment and skill development have improved, but disparities remain.
• Migration: Migration patterns have been influenced by economic opportunities and the Asian financial crisis.
• Remittances: Remittances from migrants have played a role in improving household incomes.

Students

• Education Access: Improved access to education, with higher school participation rates.
• Public and Private Spending: Both sectors have increased, but efficiency and quality of education spending remain a concern.
• Returns to Education: Higher returns to education are observed, particularly for monthly wage earners.

Infrastructure

• Roads and Phones: Infrastructure has improved, but access remains uneven.
• ICT: The region lags behind in ICT adoption and development.
• Public Spending: Infrastructure spending has increased, but there is room for improvement in targeting and efficiency.

Regional and International Context

• Mekong Region: The Northeast is part of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), with growth and trade patterns analyzed.
• International Comparison: The region's growth is lower than its international neighbors, indicating missed opportunities for integration and development.

Policy Recommendations

• Growth: Focus on improving productivity and diversifying the economy.
• Poverty Reduction: Enhance access to education, employment, and social services.
• Public Expenditures: Improve the efficiency and targeting of public spending.
• Value Chain: Strengthen the value chains for rice and silk to enhance competitiveness and profitability.

Conclusion

The Northeast has made significant progress in economic growth and poverty reduction, but it still faces challenges in achieving balanced development. The report emphasizes the need for policy reforms, improved infrastructure, and better integration into national and international markets to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.