2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Madagascar_Economic_Development_Document_32页_1mb

Summary of Madagascar Economic Development Document (2017)

Core Content

This document outlines Madagascar's Economic Development Paper (DDE), which supports the implementation of the National Development Plan (PND) and aligns with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program. It provides an analysis of the underlying causes of poverty, poverty reduction strategies, and key policy areas aimed at achieving inclusive and sustainable growth.

Main Objectives

The primary objective of the DDE is to reverse the trend of modest economic performance, deteriorating social conditions, and persistent poverty through a multi-faceted strategy that includes macroeconomic, sectoral, and structural reforms. The document emphasizes the need for strong, sustainable, and inclusive growth to reduce poverty and improve social inclusion.

Key Policy Areas

1. Fiscal Policy

• Increase revenue and rationalize budget expenditure to support public investment.
• Expand the tax base and continue tax and customs administration reform.
• Eliminate inefficiencies in public spending and underfunding of retirement and pension funds.
• Reform the national public institutions (EPN) to enhance fiscal management.

2. Monetary Policy

• Regulate domestic liquidity to normalize economic activity and control inflation (target <10.0%).
• Use monetary aggregate targeting through liquidity absorption auctions (AON) and liquidity injection auctions (AOP).
• Improve forecasting models and communication mechanisms at the Central Bank of Madagascar (BFM) to enhance transparency and effectiveness.

3. Financial System Development

• Address underdevelopment and risk aversion in the financial system.
• Enhance access to financing for SMEs, diversify financial products, and improve customer protection.
• Strengthen sector resilience and financial inclusion.

4. Agricultural Policy

• Continue land tenure reform and promote intensive and extensive farming methods.
• Maintain and renovate hydro-agricultural infrastructure.
• Intensify technical and financial support for agricultural research and training centers.

5. Social Sector Development

• Improve quality and access to education and health services.
• Expand social protection systems to include vulnerable farmers and enhance resilience to natural disasters.
• Focus on universal health coverage and improved educational infrastructure.

6. Infrastructure and Energy Development

• Rehabilitate rural roads to improve access to markets.
• Reform JIRAMA (water and electric utility) and shift toward renewable energy sources (hydropower, solar, wind, biomass).
• Invest in energy infrastructure to support economic growth and development goals.

7. Governance and Institutional Strengthening

• Promote anti-corruption measures, including the 2016 anti-corruption law and regional anti-corruption centers (PAC).
• Enhance asset recovery mechanisms and public financial management (PFM).
• Support national reconciliation through the creation of steering and technical committees.

8. Resilience and Disaster Management

• Strengthen local communities and the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC).
• Develop early warning systems and establish financial mechanisms to respond to emergencies.

9. Statistical and Institutional Reforms

• Improve the National Statistics Institute (INSTAT) to better monitor poverty and development progress.
• Enhance data collection and analysis for more informed policy decisions.

Poverty Profile and Determinants

• Poverty is predominantly rural, with a 28-point deviation between rural and urban poverty rates.
• In 2012, 71.5% of the population was poor, with 77.3% in rural areas and 48.5% in urban areas.
• Extreme poverty affects 56.5% of the population, with MGA 328,160 (less than MGA 1,000 per day) as the average income.
• Poverty is linked to household size, educational level of the head of household, and number of dependents.
• The poorest households have an average size of 6.4 members and 4 dependents, while the wealthiest have 3.2 members and 1.7 dependents.
• Literacy rates are strongly correlated with poverty levels, with the poorest households having a literacy rate of 42.5% compared to 83.0% for the wealthiest.

Poverty Trends

• Poverty rates have remained relatively stable since 2012, with no significant decline.
• The poorest regions include Androy (96.7%) and Atsimo Antsiranana (93.1%), while Diana and Analamanga have lower rates (42.2% and 47.0%).
• Political instability and economic crises have intensified poverty, especially in 2002 when the poverty rate reached 80.7%.

Economic Performance Highlights

• Economic growth recovered after the 2014 elections, with 4.1% in 2015 and 4.2% in 2016.
• Inflation slowed from 7.4% in 2015 to 6.7% in 2016.
• Tax burden increased from 9.9% of GDP in 2014 to 10.9% in 2016.
• Fiscal deficit reduced to 1.9% of GDP in 2016.
• Investment to GDP ratio fluctuated, with private investment dominating.

Conclusion

The DDE highlights the need for sustained macroeconomic stability, inclusive growth, and sectoral reforms to combat poverty. It also emphasizes the importance of governance, financial system development, and resilience to natural disasters. The strategy is aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and aims to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Key Challenges

• Persistent poverty and inefficient public spending.
• Limited access to basic services such as water, sanitation, and electricity.
• High inflation and eroded purchasing power.
• Weak governance and corruption.
• Environmental degradation and climate change.
• Inadequate infrastructure, especially in rural areas.

Key Successes

• Economic recovery post-2014 elections.
• Improved rankings in World Bank Doing Business and UNDP Human Development Indicator.
• Progress in tax reform and fiscal management.
• Initiatives for national reconciliation and anti-corruption measures.
• Development of special economic zones (SEZs) to promote inclusive growth.

This document serves as a comprehensive guide for Madagascar's development strategy, outlining priorities, challenges, and measures to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth.