2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Belarus_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_82页_2mb

Summary of the 2018 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Belarus

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation with the Republic of Belarus, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic recovery, policy frameworks, and structural vulnerabilities. The consultation concluded on January 16, 2019, following discussions with Belarusian officials in November 2018. The report includes a Press Release, Staff Report, and a Statement by the Executive Director, highlighting the economic performance, risks, and policy recommendations.

Main Economic Developments

• Economic Recovery: The Belarusian economy continued its cyclical recovery in 2018, with real GDP growth reaching 3.7 percent in the first three quarters.
• Inflation: Inflation remained historically low, at 5 percent y/y in November 2018, supported by prudent monetary policy and central bank credibility.
• Exchange Rate: The rubel remained relatively stable on a nominal effective basis, with a depreciation of 8 percent against the U.S. dollar.
• External Accounts: The current account deficit was expected to reach 2.5 percent of GDP in 2018, up from 1.6 percent in 2017, due to stronger imports, especially related to the nuclear power plant construction.
• Budget Deficit: The overall budget deficit, including quasi-fiscal spending on SOEs, was projected at 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018, up from 0.3 percent in 2017.

Key Risks and Challenges

• Russia's Tax Maneuver: The new Russian energy tax system could significantly impact Belarus' current account and fiscal balance, with a direct impact of 3.9 percent of GDP if no compensation is reached.
• Public Debt: Public debt, including guarantees, rose to 52 percent of GDP, driven by costly extra-budgetary activities and high FX debt.
• Dollarization: Financial dollarization remains high, increasing liquidity and credit risks.
• Structural Vulnerabilities: Inefficiencies in the state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector and limited trade and financing diversification are major challenges.
• Demographics and Productivity: Unfavorable demographics and weak productivity are expected to limit medium-term growth, which is projected at 2 percent.

Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Policy

• Debt Reduction: A permanent fiscal adjustment of 1.5 percent of GDP is needed to reverse the upward trajectory of public debt.
• Spending Control: Expenditures, especially capital spending and wages, are rising faster than revenues, requiring more consolidation over the next three years.
• SOE Reforms: Comprehensive reforms of SOEs are essential, including a systematic viability assessment and strengthening corporate governance.
• Social Safety Nets: Robust social safety nets should be established to cushion vulnerable groups during restructuring.

Monetary and Financial Sector

• Monetary Policy: Tight monetary policy is needed to counter inflationary pressures and maintain exchange rate stability.
• Inflation Targeting: The gradual transition to inflation targeting should continue, including removing interest rate caps and enhancing central bank independence.
• De-dollarization: Developing the rubel capital market is crucial to reduce dollarization and increase confidence in the rubel.
• Financial Sector: Regulatory and supervisory frameworks should be strengthened, and the implementation of the FSAP recommendations should be accelerated.

Structural Reforms

• Private Sector Development: Efforts to develop the private sector should be advanced, with a focus on improving the business climate and leveling the playing field with SOEs.
• Price Liberalization: Prices should be liberalized more broadly, including energy tariffs, to reduce cross-subsidies from firms.
• Trade and Financing Diversification: Diversification of trade and financing is necessary to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.

Contingency Policies

• Negotiations with Russia: The outcome of negotiations on a new energy agreement with Russia is critical for the medium-term outlook.
• Exchange Rate Stability: Exchange rate depreciation could increase public and external debt ratios, exacerbating financial risks.

Key Figures and Projections

• Real GDP Growth: Expected to decline to 2.5 percent in 2019, with a medium-term projection of 2 percent.
• Public Debt: Projected to reach 56 percent of GDP in 2023.
• Current Account Deficit: Expected to reach 2.2 percent of GDP in 2023.
• Net Credit to the Economy: Projected to rise to 44.7 percent of GDP in 2023.
• Nominal Effective Exchange Rate: Depreciated by 17.5 percent from 2018 levels.

Conclusion

The IMF emphasized the importance of continued reforms and policy consistency to address deep-seated vulnerabilities and ensure sustainable growth. While the current recovery is positive, the risks associated with Russia's tax maneuver and the need for structural reforms remain critical for long-term stability. The authorities are encouraged to implement comprehensive fiscal and structural policies to enhance economic resilience and support convergence towards regional income levels.