20230808-中国银河-每日晨报_11页_518kb

报告摘要

Introduces a new paradigm for China's economic research by adopting four dimensions: long-term cycles, supply-side growth, social-political factors, and global perspectives. This shifts from traditional short-cycle demand focus and internal growth models, acknowledging the challenges of "百年大变局" and the irreconcilability of old and new paradigms.
Highlights emerging economic risks, including domestic demand shortages and external complexities. Recommends monitoring China's July imports/exports data (expected export declines), CPI/PPI (CPI to around -0.7%, PPI near -3.7% decrease), and US inflation data (post-estimated 3.0% stickiness).
US inflation outlook remains elevated, with potential delays in cooling measures, affecting global markets and policy decisions.

Central Political Bureau meeting summary: Emphasizes balanced development and risk management; positive economic recovery with challenges like domestic demand weakness and external pressures. Includes removal of "real estate not for speculation" and promotion of AI and digital economy.
Policy adjustments: Focus on employment as a strategic priority and supportive measures for car consumption, infrastructure, and urban renovations. Market performance in July showed A-share and overseas indices rising, but sector-specific issues noted in TMT.

Focus on discrepancies in expected outcomes driving market movements, highlighting bond and convertible bond markets for opportunities with defensive strategies.

Technology sector: AI advancements by entities like Google DeepMind with new models for robotics.
Automotive and retail: Policies to boost consumer spending, including auto consumption and retail reforms.
Building materials: Outlook for cement and glass sectors amidst seasonal demand and supply adjustments, with recommendations on stocks.
Consumer goods: Sector-specific advice on retail and food industries, including regulatory and market risks.

Policies face implementation challenges; global risks include persistent low inflation and external衰退 possibilities. Strong emphasis on broadening perspectives and data-driven decisions.

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