2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Selected_Issues_31页_812kb

报告摘要

Summary of Selected Issues Paper on the Islamic Republic of Iran (March 2018)

Core Content

This document outlines key issues related to the development of the domestic government securities market, the expansion of Iran's non-oil exports, and the fostering of incentives for women to work in order to promote long-term growth in Iran.

1. Developing the Domestic Government Securities Market

Main Points

The Iranian government is working to develop the domestic bond market under the Sixth National Development Plan (NDP).
The Debt Management Office (DMO) was established in 2015 to manage government debt and has been instrumental in increasing the issuance of government securities.
The current structure includes a variety of government securities such as Participation Papers (Musharakah), Sukuk (Al-ljara and Morabaha), and Islamic Treasury Bills (ITBs).
ITBs are the largest share of government securities, with maturities of 4 months, 6 months, or 1 year. They are sold at a discount and are guaranteed by the Planning and Budget Organization (PBO).
A public debt law is being prepared to define the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MOEF) as the sole issuer of government securities, improve transparency, and enhance investor confidence.

Key Policies and Recommendations

A debt management strategy (DMS) is essential for sustainable and efficient public debt management. It should include targets for securitization of arrears, maturity profile, currency composition, and interest rate structure.
A pre-announced issuance calendar and competitive auctions would increase market clarity and liquidity.
A market-based monetary policy framework is needed to reduce the risk and cost of monetary financing and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Diversification of the investor base through primary dealers or market makers can foster deeper and more liquid markets.
Taxation of financial instruments should be considered to protect the revenue base, ensuring tax neutrality across various instruments.
Inclusion in international bond indices could attract more foreign investors and increase market liquidity, requiring a certain size for local bond issuances and access to international clearing houses.

2. Expanding Iran's Non-Oil Exports

Current Status

Natural resources dominate Iran's exports, accounting for 53% of total exports but only 12.3% of GDP.
Non-oil exports represent 11% of GDP, which is low compared to upper middle-income countries (24.2%).
Iran exports mainly to a few countries, with China accounting for 37% of non-oil exports.
The European market remains underdeveloped for non-oil exports, despite its potential.

Key Export Categories

Polyethylene: Top export in the plastic and rubber category, representing 11.6% of non-oil exports. Mainly exported to China (84%) and Turkey (10%), with significant untapped potential in Europe.
Car parts: Top export in the transportation category, representing 0.1% of non-oil exports. Mainly exported to Turkey (72%), France (24%), and Russia (3%).
Pistachios: Top export in the vegetable category, representing 5.9% of non-oil exports. Exported to a wide range of global buyers.

Policy Recommendations

Improving export competitiveness through structural reforms and exchange rate unification is essential.
Attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can enhance the technological capabilities of the exporting private sector.
Reducing administrative barriers to trade, such as long processing times and high tariffs, is necessary.
Developing bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, especially with the European Union, can help expand market access for Iranian firms.

3. Fostering Incentives for Women to Work

Current Status

Despite progress in education and health, female labor force participation (FLFP) remains low at 16.2% in 2016.
Only 13% of women are employed, and the unemployment rate among women is 18.9%, twice that of men.
Women are overrepresented in certain fields of tertiary education, such as engineering and science, but face significant barriers in entering the workforce.

Key Challenges

Discrimination in the labor market, especially in sectors like banking and finance.
High costs associated with child-rearing and lack of affordable childcare options.
Policy uncertainty and bureaucratic inefficiencies hinder female employment.

Policy Recommendations

Education campaigns to reduce discrimination and promote gender equality.
Strengthening legal rights for women to ensure equal opportunities in the labor market.
Subsidizing affordable child care for lower-income women to reduce the cost of working outside the home.
Reforms to reduce gender gaps in the labor market can significantly boost GDP, productivity, and tax collections.

4. Preventing Corruption, Money Laundering, and Terrorist Financing

Main Points

The government has made progress in addressing money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF), but risks remain.
A Sharia committee oversees the issuance of government securities, ensuring compliance with Islamic financial principles.
Transparency and accountability are crucial for reducing the risks of ML/TF and corruption.
Legal frameworks and governance processes need to be strengthened to ensure effective debt management and reduce the risk of corruption.

Key Recommendations

Implement non-distortionary taxation of financial instruments to protect the revenue base.
Develop a market-based monetary policy framework to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce the need for direct monetary financing.
Ensure clear legal definitions and disclosure of primary dealer eligibility to promote a diverse investor base and market depth.

5. References

Awadzi, E. (2015), "Designing Legal Frameworks for Public Debt Management," IMF Working Paper 15/147.
Jaramillo, L., Mulas Grados, C., and Kimani, E. (2017), "Debt spikes and stock flow adjustments: Emerging economies in perspective," Journal of Economics and Business.
Hanson, A. (2007), "The Growth in Government Domestic Debt: Changing Burdens and Risks," The World Bank.
World Bank and IMF (2014), "Revised Guidelines for Public Debt Management."
IMF (2017), "Reforms to the Monetary Policy Framework," IMF Country Paper No. 17/63.
Hinloopen, J., and Van Marrewijk, C. (2001), "On the empirical distribution of the Balassa index," Review of World Economics.
Schwab, K., Sala i Martin, X., and the World Economic Forum (2017), "Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018," World Economic Forum.