IMF国际货币组织全球-Republic-of-Estonia_Selected-Issues_45页_1mb

报告摘要

Estonia Selected Issues Summary

Overview

This document is a Selected Issues Paper (SIP) on Estonia, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2020. It provides an analysis of Estonia's competitiveness and exposure to trade shocks, with a focus on the role of global value chains (GVCs) in shaping these dynamics. The paper also discusses income inequality and anti-money laundering (AML)/counter-terrorist financing (CFT) supervision in Estonia.

Competitiveness and Exposure to Shocks

A. Introduction

Competitiveness is a key factor in a country's macroeconomic performance.
Estonia, a member of the Eurozone, has adopted the Euro in 2011, which eliminated the possibility of independent exchange rate and monetary policy adjustments.
Traditional competitiveness measures like the real effective exchange rate (REER) may not fully capture Estonia's integration into GVCs.

B. Assessment of Competitiveness Based on Value Added REER

The paper introduces a value-added REER (VA-REER) model that accounts for trade in value added, which is more relevant for GVC-integrated economies.
Estonia's participation in GVCs is significant, with about 75% compared to its Baltic peers (Lithuania: 64%, Latvia: 60%).
VA-REER shows more pronounced changes in price competitiveness than conventional REER, indicating a greater loss of competitiveness since the adoption of the Euro.
The gap between VA-REER and conventional REER is mainly due to price differentials, with Estonia's GDP deflator growing faster than CPI since 2012.

C. Exposure to Shocks in a World of Global Value Chains

VA-REER overvaluation has a negative and persistent effect on value-added export growth.
A 10 percentage point overvaluation in VA-REER reduces value-added export growth by 0.8 percentage point in the first year and by 1.5 percentage point in the third year.
In highly integrated GVCs, a 10 percentage point overvaluation leads to a 1 percentage point reduction in the first year and 1.8 percentage point in the third year.
Estonia's exposure to trade shocks from China, the US, and the UK is significant, with the impact being larger when considering value-added trade rather than gross trade.
A 5.9% US tariff (Layer 1) would reduce Estonia's value-added by 0.3%, while a cumulative tariff shock (Layer 1 + 2 + 3) would reduce it by 0.6%.

D. Conclusions and Policy Implications

VA-REER highlights potential competitiveness issues in Estonia that conventional REER does not.
The rising unit labor costs and wage growth have negatively impacted Estonia's ability to compete in global markets.
Policies should focus on maintaining wage growth in line with productivity to preserve competitiveness.
Estonia has significant potential to improve its competitiveness within the context of GVCs.
There is a need for policies that enhance resilience to external shocks, particularly those related to trade tensions and tariffs.

Income Inequality

Estonia has experienced a rise in income inequality, with the Theil index showing a slight deterioration in competitiveness ranking.
The gender pay gap remains a concern, with women earning less than men in full-time employment.
Factors contributing to the gender pay gap include differences in labor market institutions and sectoral participation.
Policies to reduce inequality include improving labor market institutions, enhancing social protections, and promoting equal opportunities in the workplace.

AML/CFT Supervision

Estonia's AML/CFT supervision needs to be strengthened, particularly in implementing a risk-based approach.
The paper emphasizes the importance of supervisory resources, procedures, and powers in ensuring effective compliance.
Domestic and international cooperation are critical for enhancing AML/CFT supervision.
The conclusion suggests that Estonia should focus on improving its AML/CFT framework to align with international standards and enhance financial sector resilience.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Evolution of Competitiveness (VA-REER and conventional REER)
Figure 2: Global Value Chains Participation (Sectoral breakdown)
Figure 3: REER Gap Breakdown (Price and weight components)
Figure 4: GDP Deflator Developments (Y-o-Y percentage change)
Figure 5: Effect of VA-REER Shocks on Real Value-Added Export Growth
Figure 6: Impact of Value-Added Export Growth on Real GDP Growth
Figure 7: Implications of Trade Tensions (Impact of tariff shocks)
Table 1: Unadjusted Gender Pay Gap and Female to Male Log Net Monthly Wage Ratio