2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Can_Islamic_Banking_Increase_Financial_Inclusion__41页_812kb

报告摘要

Can Islamic Banking Increase Financial Inclusion?

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper investigates whether the development of Islamic banking can contribute to financial inclusion, particularly in Muslim-majority countries. The paper analyzes country-level data on financial inclusion and Islamic banking penetration, and explores the potential impact of Islamic banking on access to and use of financial services.

Main Findings

1. Financial Inclusion and Islamic Banking in Muslim Countries

Muslim countries (OIC members) generally exhibit lower levels of financial inclusion compared to non-Muslim countries.
A notable proportion of unbanked individuals in OIC countries cite religious reasons for not using formal financial services.
Islamic banking is associated with a lower incidence of religious self-exclusion and a lower share of firms citing access to finance as a major obstacle.

2. Trends in Financial Inclusion

Over the past decade, financial inclusion indicators have grown steadily globally, though at a slower pace post-2008 financial crisis.
OIC countries have shown faster growth in physical access to financial services (e.g., bank branches, ATMs, deposit accounts) compared to the rest of the world.
However, usage of these services has not increased as rapidly, suggesting a gap between access and actual use.

3. Empirical Relationship Between Islamic Banking and Financial Inclusion

There is a positive but tentative relationship between Islamic banking and financial inclusion.
Regression analysis indicates that Islamic banking is associated with higher credit access for households and firms.
The effect is weaker and less consistent when structural determinants are controlled for.
The relationship is not statistically significant in all regressions, suggesting that other factors (e.g., income levels, infrastructure) may play a more dominant role.

4. Key Differences in Financial Inclusion

OIC countries without Islamic banking tend to have higher growth rates in financial inclusion indicators compared to those with Islamic banking.
The presence of Islamic banking is not consistently correlated with improved financial inclusion outcomes, even though some statistical differences exist.
Income per capita is a significant determinant of financial inclusion, but not of religious self-exclusion.

Key Indicators and Data Sources

A. Data Sources

IMF Financial Access Survey (FAS): Supplier-side data on access and use of financial services.
World Bank Global Findex: User-side data on household financial inclusion.
World Bank Enterprise Survey: Data on firm-level financial inclusion.

B. Stylized Facts

Global averages: About 12 accounts per 1,000 adults and 35% of firms have access to loans or credit lines.
OIC countries: Average 8.75 accounts per 1,000 adults and less than 21% of firms have access to bank financing.
Islamic banking countries within OIC: Show slightly better financial inclusion metrics than non-Islamic banking OIC countries, but the differences are not statistically significant.
Growth rates: OIC countries without Islamic banking often outperform those with Islamic banking in financial inclusion growth.

Policy Implications

1. Constraints to Financial Inclusion

Structural factors such as income levels, geography, and institutional capacity significantly influence financial inclusion.
Religious self-exclusion remains a challenge, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

2. Recommendations

Promote Islamic banking development: To the extent that Islamic banking is linked to financial inclusion, supporting its growth could help reduce exclusion.
Enhance access for SMEs: Islamic banking may need to be tailored to better serve small and medium enterprises.
Leverage general financial inclusion policies: Proven strategies, such as improving financial literacy and expanding infrastructure, should be adopted regardless of the presence of Islamic banks.

Conclusion

While Islamic banking may offer a potential avenue for financial inclusion, particularly by addressing religious self-exclusion, the empirical evidence is mixed and tentative. The paper suggests that Islamic banking could contribute to financial inclusion, but more research and targeted policies are needed to strengthen this relationship, especially for SMEs. The role of Islamic banking in financial inclusion is not yet fully substantiated by cross-country data, and broader structural factors remain the primary drivers of financial inclusion outcomes.

Key Terms and Concepts

Financial Inclusion: The extent to which individuals and businesses have access to and use formal financial services.
Religious Self-Exclusion: The proportion of individuals who choose not to use financial services due to religious reasons.
Financial Possibility Frontier: A concept used to assess the potential for financial inclusion based on structural determinants.
Lerner Index: A measure of market power in banking systems, used to assess competition.

References (Summary)

The paper draws on data from the IMF and World Bank, including the Global Financial Development Report (GFDR) and the Global Findex database.
It references studies such as those by Barajas, Chami, and Yousefi (2013), Bhattacharaya and Wolde (2010), and Demirguc-Kunt, Klapper, and Randall (2013).
The analysis includes both supplier-side and user-side data, and employs regression models to assess the impact of Islamic banking on financial inclusion.

Tables Summary

Table II.1: Country groups based on OIC membership and Islamic banking presence.
Table II.2: Summary of financial inclusion indicators.
Table II.3: Mean growth rates and levels of selected variables.
Table II.4: Differences in mean growth rates across country groups.
Table II.5: Differences in financial inclusion levels between OIC and non-OIC countries.
Table II.6: Regression results assessing the impact of Islamic banking on financial inclusion within OIC countries.