2018年-世界发展银行全球_Senegal_Economic_Update_April_2018___Recent_Growth_Drivers_in_Senegal_and_the_Role_of_Agriculture_in_Developing_a_Resilient_and_Inclusive_Economy_64页_2mb

Senegal Economic Update Summary (April 2018)

Core Content

Senegal experienced robust economic growth in 2016 and the first half of 2017, driven by strong exports and increased public investment. The economy maintained a wide-based growth trajectory, with GDP growth accelerating from 6.5% in 2015 to 6.7% in 2016. This placed Senegal among the fastest-growing economies in the African continent and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Despite this growth, employment creation remained limited, and the unemployment rate increased from 15.7% in June 2015 to 16.6% by the end of 2016.

The financial sector expanded from a low base, with assets and deposits growing to 53% and 37.3% of GDP in 2016, respectively. However, financial inclusion remains a challenge, particularly for SMEs and households due to high collateral requirements and low income levels.

Main Growth Drivers

• Exports: Robust exports were the main growth driver, especially from the extractives, cement, and phosphoric acid sectors. Exports grew by an average of 10.5% in 2015-2016, contributing significantly to the overall economic performance.
• Public Investment: Public investment increased notably, especially in infrastructure and energy, as part of the Plan Senegal Emergent (PSE). This helped support future growth.
• Private Consumption: Private consumption also accelerated, driven by higher incomes and optimism about the economy.

Risks and Challenges

• Employment Creation: Growth has not translated into significant job creation, particularly in the formal sector. The low elasticity of employment to sectoral growth indicates structural issues in the labor market.
• Fiscal Stress: Although the fiscal balance improved, lower than expected revenues and delayed payments in 2017 revealed growing fiscal pressures. Public debt increased to 60.6% of GDP in 2016, with concerns about sustainability.
• Debt Indicators: Debt service to revenue and present value of debt to GDP+remittances showed emergent strains, indicating potential moderate debt risk if not addressed.
• External Balance: The current account deficit narrowed to 5.6% of GDP in 2016, but it worsened in the first eight months of 2017 due to rising imports and lower exports.

Macroeconomic Outlook

• Growth Projections: The World Bank projects that real GDP growth could reach 7.0% in 2019 if current conditions continue to support the growth trend.
• Downside Risks: Risks include delays in PSE projects, poor implementation of reforms, volatility in agricultural production due to climate change, and potential increases in oil prices that could affect energy costs and competitiveness.

Role of Agriculture

• Agricultural Growth: The agriculture sector grew at an average rate of 3.2% between 2000 and 2016, but with significant volatility due to weather and climate shocks.
• Key Crops: Staple crops such as rice, groundnuts, millet, and pulses have seen substantial growth, with rice yields surpassing the African average and closing the gap with the world average.
• Poverty and Productivity: Agriculture remains a critical sector for poverty reduction, particularly in rural areas. However, productivity has remained low, and input intensification rather than total factor productivity (TFP) improvements has driven growth.

Public Sector Involvement

• Government Spending: Public spending on agriculture increased, but the efficiency of these expenditures is questionable. A large portion of the budget was allocated to crops, yet only half of the agriculture GDP growth stemmed from crop production.
• Subsidies and Reforms: Subsidies, particularly for groundnuts, have been ineffective and distort market competition. Reforms in the groundnut sector have started to yield results, but further action is needed to improve competitiveness and support the sector's integration into global markets.
• Private Sector Role: The private sector has contributed to agricultural productivity through modern processing units and investment in the value chain. However, public support for certain sectors has limited the full realization of these benefits.

Policy Recommendations

• Enhance Productivity: Focus on improving total factor productivity and labor productivity through better access to climate-smart technologies, irrigation systems, and agricultural R&D.
• Stabilize Revenues: Develop a stable policy framework for whole nut exports, including measures to protect against revenue volatility.
• Improve Financial Inclusion: Address financial inclusion challenges by reducing collateral requirements and expanding digital financial services.
• Fiscal Management: Improve tax collection, rationalize public spending, and manage accumulated arrears to ensure long-term macroeconomic sustainability.
• Risk Management: Strengthen risk management mechanisms to protect the agriculture sector from climate variability and implement effective insurance systems.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: 6.7% in 2016, 5.6% in H1-2017.
• Current Account Deficit: 5.6% of GDP in 2016, expected to worsen slightly in 2017.
• Public Debt: 60.6% of GDP in 2016, with risks of moderate debt distress if not managed.
• Agricultural Growth: 3.2% average between 2000 and 2016, with significant volatility.
• Agricultural Productivity: Limited improvements in labor productivity, with input use being the main driver of growth.
• Fiscal Deficit: Reduced to 4.2% of GDP in 2016, but remained at 5.6% in 8M-2017 due to delayed payments.

Conclusion

Senegal's economy has shown strong growth driven by exports and public investment, but challenges remain in terms of employment creation, fiscal sustainability, and agricultural productivity. The agriculture sector, while crucial for economic development and poverty reduction, is vulnerable to climate shocks and requires structural reforms and improved efficiency in public spending to achieve long-term resilience and growth. The government needs to focus on enhancing productivity, improving financial inclusion, and managing fiscal and external balances effectively.