2017年-世界发展银行全球_Kenya_Economic_Update_April_2017_No_15___Housing_-_Unavailable_and_Unaffordable_86页_2mb

Kenya Economic Update Summary (April 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of Kenya's economic performance in 2016 and outlines key challenges and opportunities for growth in the near future, with a special focus on the housing market and its financing challenges.

Main Points

1. Economic Performance in 2016

• Robust Growth: Kenya's economy grew at 5.8% in 2016, outperforming its regional peers and marking the fastest expansion since 2011.
• Broad-based Growth: The service sector was the most dynamic, contributing 3.2 percentage points to GDP growth, with tourism and transport and storage sub-sectors showing strong performance.
• Stable Macroeconomic Environment: Inflation remained subdued, and the exchange rate was relatively stable, supporting economic activity.
• Favorable Factors: Growth was supported by low oil prices, favorable harvests, a rebound in tourism, and strong remittance inflows.
• Challenges: Private sector credit growth slowed, and the global economic environment posed risks to future growth.

2. Growth Prospects for 2017–2019

• Near-term Dip: Due to headwinds such as the ongoing drought and rising oil prices, GDP growth is expected to moderate to 5.5% in 2017.
• Medium-term Recovery: As drought conditions ease and the global economy strengthens, growth is projected to rebound to 5.8% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2019.
• Fiscal Constraints: The fiscal deficit is expected to remain a challenge, with the government aiming to reduce it to 4.3% of GDP by FY19/20.

3. Risks to Growth Outlook

• Domestic Risks: These include potential fiscal slippages, prolonged drought, and security concerns.
• External Risks: Weaker growth in major trading partners and uncertainty around US interest rate hikes could affect capital flows and the Kenyan shilling.

4. Policy Recommendations

• Maintain Macro Stability: Prudent fiscal and monetary policies are essential to sustain economic performance.
• Fiscal Consolidation: Implement the Medium Term Fiscal Framework to reduce the deficit without compromising critical public investments.
• Structural Reforms: Accelerate reforms to improve productivity and unlock growth potential, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure.
• Housing Market Reforms: Address the housing deficit through improved access to affordable housing finance, especially for low-income households.

Special Focus: Affordable Housing

5.1 Housing and Housing Finance in Kenya – Unaffordable and Unavailable

• Housing Deficit: Over 2 million housing units are needed, with nearly 61% of urban households living in slums.
• Current Supply: Annual production of housing units is below target, at less than 50,000 units per year.
• Affordability Gap: Mortgage debt in Kenya is only 3.15% of GDP, much lower than in developed countries.

5.2 Benefits of Affordable Housing

• Economic Growth: Improved access to housing finance can stimulate economic growth, job creation, and financial sector development.
• Multiplier Effect: Every dollar invested in housing generates indirect benefits across the economy.

5.3 Constraints to Affordable Housing

• Financing Issues: Limited access to long-term financing and low mortgage penetration (fewer than 25,000 mortgages outstanding).
• Private Sector Role: SACCOs and housing cooperatives are critical to housing finance, but they lack diversified funding sources.

5.4 Innovative Instruments for Housing Finance

• Mortgage Refinance Companies (MRCs): Can help increase mortgage supply.
• Housing Finance Guarantees: Provide security to lenders and increase credit availability.
• Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): Useful for affordable housing projects and can be catalytic in unlocking private investment.

5.5 Policy Reforms for Housing Finance

• Standardization of Mortgage Contracts: Needed to improve transparency and reduce legal risks.
• Foreclosure Regulations: Must be clear and appropriate to protect both lenders and borrowers.
• Mortgage-backed Securities and Covered Bonds: Should be developed to mobilize long-term capital.
• Credit Reporting and Collateral Registries: Can enhance the efficiency of the housing finance system.

5.6 Role of Government

• Supportive Environment: The government should create a favorable regulatory and policy environment to encourage private sector participation.
• Inter-ministerial Committees: Can be established to coordinate reforms and address housing challenges.
• Infrastructure Development: Improving access to land and basic infrastructure can help unlock the housing market.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: 5.8% in 2016, expected to moderate to 5.5% in 2017 and recover to 5.8% and 6.1% by 2018 and 2019.
• Housing Deficit: Over 2 million units, with 4.4% annual urbanization contributing to the rise in demand.
• Fiscal Deficit: Targeted to be reduced to 4.3% of GDP by FY19/20.
• Private Sector Credit: Growth remains below historical averages, affected by interest rate caps.
• Drought Impact: A major headwind, expected to ease in 2017, but could persist beyond that.
• Tourism Recovery: Improved security led to a rebound in tourism, contributing to growth.
• Structural Reforms: Necessary to unlock productivity and growth potential in line with Vision 2030.

Conclusion

Kenya's economic performance in 2016 was robust, driven by a mix of favorable domestic and external factors. However, the country faces challenges in sustaining this growth, particularly due to the ongoing drought and fiscal pressures. A critical area for development is the housing market, which remains unaffordable and inaccessible for many. The government, in collaboration with the private sector, needs to implement structural and policy reforms to stimulate housing finance and unlock the potential for growth and job creation.