2013年-世界发展银行全球_World_Bank_East_Asia_and_Pacific_Economic_Update_April_2013___A_Fine_Balance_28页_1mb

East Asia and Pacific Economic Update - April 2013

Core Content

The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) developing economies maintained resilience in 2012 despite a challenging global environment. The region's GDP growth was 7.5 percent, slightly lower than 2011's 8.3 percent but still the fastest among all developing regions. China's growth slowed to 7.8 percent from 9.3 percent in 2011 due to policy tightening and weak external demand, while other EAP economies grew at 6.2 percent, driven by strong domestic demand and a revival in global trade.

Main Views

• Growth Dynamics: The region's growth was supported by robust domestic demand, with governments implementing expansionary fiscal and accommodative monetary policies to boost consumption and investment.
• Performance of Middle-Income EAP Countries: Middle-income countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand outperformed expectations, with notable growth in 2012, especially in the last quarter.
• Global Impact: EAP continued to be a key driver of global growth, contributing around 40 percent of the world's growth in 2012.
• Challenges and Risks: External demand remained weak, dragging on growth in most EAP economies, while capital inflows surged. There were concerns about over-heating in some larger economies and potential risks from global financial instability, particularly in the Euro Area and the United States.
• Inflation and Debt: Inflation remained under control but showed signs of upward pressure. Debt levels rose, with some countries approaching or exceeding statutory debt limits.
• Trade and Investment: Trade performance was mixed, with net exports contributing negatively to growth in most countries, except the Philippines. Investment activity was strong, particularly in FDI and public infrastructure, though efficiency declined in some areas.

Key Information

Economic Growth

• Regional Growth: 7.5% in 2012, down from 8.3% in 2011.
• China: Grew at 7.8%, down from 9.3% due to internal rebalancing.
• Other EAP Economies: Grew at 6.2%, up from 4.5% in 2011.
• ASEAN Countries: Grew at 5.4% in 2012, up from 4.5% in 2011.
• Vietnam: Grew at a 13-year low of 5.0%.
• EAP Outlook: Growth is expected to rise to 7.8% in 2013 and adjust to 7.6% in 2014 and 2015, reflecting continued rebalancing in China.

Domestic Demand

• Drivers of Growth: Strong domestic demand, supported by higher household income, government transfers, and social spending.
• China: Urban real disposable income rose by over 9%.
• Malaysia: Private consumption increased by 7.7%.
• Philippines: Remittances grew by 6.3%, supporting private consumption.
• Thailand: Minimum wage increases boosted household incomes.

Investment

• Growth: Investment strengthened in most middle-income EAP countries.
• Indonesia: Fixed investment grew by 9.8%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth.
• Malaysia: Fixed investment surged by 19.9%, contributing 4.7 percentage points.
• Thailand: Fixed investment increased by 13.3%, contributing 2.9 percentage points.
• Investment Efficiency: Declined in most EAP countries, with the exception of Indonesia.

Fiscal Policy

• Expansionary Measures: Most governments adopted expansionary fiscal policies, with fiscal deficits increasing.
• China: Central government deficit was 1.5% of GDP, with local government spending as a key support.
• Indonesia: Actual fiscal deficit was 1.8% of GDP, lower than planned, but energy subsidies reached 3.7% of GDP.
• Malaysia: Fuel subsidies contributed 2.7% of GDP to government spending.
• Thailand: Fiscal deficit rose to 3.2% of GDP due to consumption-boosting measures.

Monetary Policy

• Accommodative Conditions: Central banks in most countries cut policy rates, with Vietnam making the largest cuts.
• China: Bank loans did not exceed the target, but "social financing" increased.
• Vietnam: Bank credit growth was anemic, leading to further rate cuts.

External Demand

• Impact on Growth: External demand was a drag on growth in most EAP economies, except the Philippines.
• Trade Performance: Net exports contributed negatively to growth, with the exception of the Philippines.
• Current Account Surpluses: Declined across the region, with Indonesia recording a deficit.

Capital Inflows

• Surge in Inflows: Capital inflows increased, with significant net FDI and portfolio investment flows.
• Indonesia: Net FDI reached 1.6% of GDP.
• Malaysia: Net portfolio investment more than doubled to 6.4% of GDP.
• Thailand: Net bank flows reversed to a net inflow of 2.6% of GDP.
• China: International reserves increased by $128 billion.

Risks and Outlook

• Global Risks: Confidence in the Euro Area and the U.S. remains fragile, with potential fiscal deadlock affecting the global economy.
• China's Rebalancing: Continued investment in infrastructure and skills is crucial to sustain growth.
• Inflation Pressures: Rising in some countries, driven by minimum wage increases and currency movements.
• Debt Levels: Increased in several countries, with concerns about exceeding statutory limits.

Conclusion

The EAP region is showing resilience in the face of global challenges, with growth supported by strong domestic demand and investment. However, external demand remains weak, and the region is vulnerable to global financial instability. Continued focus on improving productivity and investment efficiency is essential for long-term sustainable growth.