空客-2018-2037空客市场预测：全球网络、全球公民（航空）（英文）-2019.5-83页_7mb

Global Networks, Global Citizens (2018-2037)

Introduction

The 2018 edition of Airbus' Global Market Forecast (GMF) highlights the global nature of commercial aviation, emphasizing its role in connecting people and fostering a sense of global citizenship. With 3,190 cities and 3,250 airports linked by air travel, the industry has seen significant growth in connectivity and traffic over the past few decades. This growth has made air travel more accessible to people in both emerging and mature economies, with the emerging countries showing a particularly strong rise in "propensity to fly."

Executive Summary

• The commercial aviation industry has shown resilience to external shocks, with traffic doubling every 15 years.
• Over the next 20 years, the global air traffic is forecast to grow at an average of 4.4% per year, and the world fleet will more than double.
• Total demand for 37,400 passenger and freight aircraft is expected, with 70% for growth and 30% for replacement.
• Passenger aircraft will account for 76% of deliveries and 54% of the value, while freighters will make up 2% of deliveries and 46% of the value.
• The services market is expected to deliver a cumulative US$4.6 trillion over the next 20 years.
• Asia-Pacific will account for 42% of deliveries, with North America and Europe combined accounting for 35%.
• The M, L, and XL segments will represent 24% of demand in units but 46% of the value.

Demand for Air Travel

• In 2017, air traffic grew by 7.5% year-on-year, with 4.1 billion passengers carried globally.
• Over half of the world's international tourists used air travel.
• Low-cost carriers (LCCs) have played a key role in driving growth through affordable fares and new routes, particularly in the leisure market.
• The low-cost model has evolved with ultra-low cost and long-haul low-cost variants.
• Government initiatives like India's UDAN-RCS and China's Belt and Road Initiative are expected to stimulate further air travel growth.
• Social media has also been a driver of tourism, increasing awareness and interest in travel destinations.

Network & Traffic Forecast

• Air travel is expected to grow by 4.4% annually over the next 20 years.
• Asia-Pacific will lead in traffic growth, with a three-fold increase by 2037.
• Emerging countries will account for 40% of global air traffic by 2037, up from 29% in 2017.
• Domestic China will become the largest traffic flow, growing 3.5 times, while Domestic USA will increase by half from its current high base.
• Western-Europe to USA, Intra-Western Europe, and Western-Europe to Middle East are all expected to grow significantly.
• 60% of the Top 20 fastest growing traffic flows will involve Asia-Pacific, and 25% will involve the Middle East.

Demand for Passenger Aircraft

• The single-aisle fleet is growing faster than the wide-body fleet in terms of productivity.
• The average number of seats on single-aisle aircraft has increased, with an average of 169 seats and ~590 nm range.
• The A321 and A350 are examples of aircraft that are operating in multiple segments, blurring traditional boundaries.
• Airbus has introduced a new segmentation model in 2018, reflecting the evolving capabilities of aircraft across different segments.
• The M, L, and XL segments are expected to represent 24% of the aircraft demand in units, but 46% of the value.

Environmental Considerations

• Aviation accounts for 2% of global man-made CO₂ emissions.
• Over the last 50 years, the industry has reduced fuel burn and CO₂ emissions per seat/km by 80%, NOx emissions by 90%, and noise by 75%.
• Airbus is working with various stakeholders to develop sustainable solutions, including sustainable fuels, operational improvements, and disruptive technologies like electrification and hybridisation.
• The company supports ICAO agreements on CO₂ standards and CORSIA, the international carbon offsetting scheme for aviation.

Conclusion

The aviation industry continues to grow and evolve, driven by economic, demographic, and technological factors. The increasing number of global citizens and the expansion of low-cost models are key trends shaping the future of air travel. Airbus remains committed to innovation and sustainability, aiming to meet the growing demand while minimizing the sector's environmental impact.