20231009-招银国际-华润电力-00836.HK-August_operating_data_recap_6页_891kb

报告摘要

as of 9 Oct 2023

This report covers CR Power's August 2023 operating data and provides equity research insights.

Jan-Aug 2023: CR Power posted a 3.8% year-on-year increase in total power generation, primarily driven by strong growth in solar and wind power.
August 2023: Hydro and solar power generation surged 34.9% and 194.7% YoY respectively due to favorable weather conditions (higher rainfall and solar availability), but thermal power decreased 12.5% YoY from reduced wind generation, excess hydro, and stricter thermal coal management during the Asia Games. Overall total power generation dropped 12.3% YoY.

The analyst maintains a "BUY" rating & lowers the target price to HK$22.53 (down from HK$23.43), reflecting reduced 2023-2025 power generation utilization hour estimates based on management guidance.
Key support for the buy recommendation includes optimism on new energy additions (aiming for 7GW installed capacity in 2023) and lower fuel costs expected in H2 2023.

Thermal Power: Costs are expected to continue improving; however, thermal coal spot prices remain high, and on-grid tariffs show minor drops but no major fluctuations anticipated.
New Energy: Solar power is poised for robust growth due to lower upstream costs and technological advancements, positioning the company for higher returns.
Capacity Payment Policy: Expected issuance in late 2023 or early 2024 could help recover earnings lost from reduced utilization hours for thermal power, enhancing supply stability.

Updated net profit estimates for 2023-2025: HK$12,703.6mn, HK$15,152.6mn, HK$17,919.3mn.
Current valuation: P/E 5.4x, P/B 0.7x, with upside potential based on SOTP.

Actual performance may vary due to market conditions, policy changes, and higher volatility in fuel costs.
Disclosure summaries include analyst certification, conflict of interest notes, and standard disclaimers on investment risks.

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