2017年-世界发展银行全球_Roads_and_the_Geography_of_Economic_Activities_in_Mexico_42页_6mb

Summary of "Roads and the Geography of Economic Activities in Mexico"

Core Content

This working paper by Blankespoor, Bougnad, Garduno-Rivera, and Selod examines the impact of road improvements on local employment and economic specialization in Mexico from 1986 to 2014. The study emphasizes the role of transport infrastructure in shaping economic activities and considers both domestic and international market access.

Main Points

• Transport Infrastructure Benefits: Investments in transport infrastructure can stimulate growth through trade, structural transformation, agglomeration, and productivity. The paper highlights that road improvements have a significant positive effect on employment and specialization in Mexico.
• Market Access and Potential: The authors introduce two key measures of accessibility:
  • Market Access (MA): A measure of the size of accessible domestic markets, calculated using population data and travel times.
  • Market Potential (MP): A measure of potential demand based on income and transport costs, which is more sensitive to changes in real income.
• Causal Effects: The study finds that improved domestic accessibility leads to a significant increase in employment and economic specialization. A 10% increase in market access results in a 1.6 to 2.1% increase in employment, while a 10% increase in market potential leads to a 2.9 to 6.5% increase in employment and a 13% increase in output specialization.
• Sectoral and Regional Heterogeneity: The effects of road improvements vary across sectors and regions. Employment in commerce and services benefits more than manufacturing from road improvements.
• Negative Effects on Ports: Lower transport costs to ports are found to harm employment, suggesting that while road improvements benefit domestic trade, they may not be as beneficial for international trade via ports.

Key Information

• Data Sources:
  • The Mexican National Institute of Statistics (INEGI) provides employment and firm location data from the Economic Census (1986, 1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014).
  • The Directory of Economic Units (DENUE) offers detailed micro-geographic data for 2004, 2009, and 2014.
• Road Database:
  • A geo-referenced road database was constructed for the period 1985–2016.
  • Road types were categorized into four classes: 'Multilane divided', 'Two lanes or Divided', 'Pavement', and 'Gravel and Earth Road'.
• Geographic Unit of Analysis:
  • The analysis uses a mixed classification of 2,094 localities, combining INEGI-identified metropolitan areas with isolated municipalities.
• Methodology:
  • The authors address endogeneity and the recursion problem using three identification strategies:
    1. The 'doughnut' strategy to instrument for market access.
    2. Substituting market access indicators with infrastructure-based measures that do not rely on population or income.
    3. Using infrastructure variables as instruments for market access.
• Historical Context:
  • Large road investments in Mexico began during the Spanish Colony and continued through various political periods.
  • The 1988–1994 period under President Salinas de Gortari marked a significant expansion in road construction, with the introduction of privately financed highways.
  • The paper also discusses the evolution of road networks and their role in economic development.

Findings

• Economic Concentration: Economic activity in Mexico is highly concentrated in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, which accounts for a significant share of employment and economic output.
• Sectoral Trends: There has been a noticeable shift from manufacturing to services and commerce, indicating a trend of tertiaryization in Mexico's economy.
• Impact of Road Improvements:
  • Improved domestic accessibility leads to higher employment and specialization.
  • Lower transport costs to the U.S. border stimulate employment, while lower transport costs to ports have a negative effect on employment.
• Accessibility Metrics:
  • Both market access and market potential have increased significantly over the study period.
  • The increase in market potential is more pronounced due to the rise in real per capita income compared to population.

Conclusion

This paper contributes to the understanding of how transport infrastructure, particularly roads, influences the geography of economic activities in Mexico. It highlights the importance of road improvements in enhancing market access and fostering local economic development, while also noting the nuanced effects across different sectors and regions. The findings have implications for transport policy in Mexico and potentially for other countries in Latin America.