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Greek Electricity System Evolution and 9 GW Corridor Analysis: KPMG Study Summary

Background

This 30-year (2026-2055) study analyzes the Greek electricity market's long-term evolution under scenarios aligned with the Greek National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). It evaluates the potential benefits of a 9 GW green electricity corridor to Germany, focusing on impacts for end-consumers and the national economy, with assumptions on RES penetration, lignite phase-out, and system load.

Methodology

• Conducted using the "Long-Term Scheduling extended (LTSx)" simulation tool, developed by Aristotle University of Thessaloniki.
• Involves detailed long-term market simulations forecasting hourly indicators (e.g., generation mix, prices) and cost-benefit calculations.
• Compares three scenarios based on RES and BESS deployment, corridor availability, and system flexibility.

Scenarios Overview

Three scenarios are defined:

1. Scenario 1 (Baseline): Includes four new CCGT units and increasing BESS; corridor unavailable. RES dominates energy supply with 81.5% share, leading to moderate exports and curtailments.

2. Scenario 2: Three new CCGT units; corridor available; no BESS. Maximizes exports via the corridor, boosting net transfers by +61.6% compared to Scenario 1.

3. Scenario 3: Similar to Scenario 2 but with higher RES capacity and moderate BESS; corridor available. Further increases corridor utilization by +22.5%, reducing RES curtailments and enhancing market integration.

Key Findings

• Corridor Benefits: Enables significant RES export potential, adding 111 TWh of net exports in Scenario 2 and 337 TWh in Scenario 3, exploited through Greece's interconnection to Central Europe.
• Consumer Impact: Final electricity prices are lower due to PPA contracts and exports (-4.9% to -13.3% savings across scenarios).
• Economic Effects: Creates substantial national economy surplus from exports (€2.51 billion to €8.11 billion NPV) and consumer savings.
• Market Dynamics: Influences DAM prices; corridor use lowers costs at night via imports and raises prices during exports, facilitating economic returns without additional subsidies in some cases.
• Resource Deployment: Requires out-of-market support for BESS and early CCGTs in Scenario 1 but not in later scenarios, supporting IRR targets of 8-10%.

Conclusion

The 9 GW corridor enhances Greek RES penetration, strengthens market integration with Europe, and delivers significant economic and cost-saving benefits, outweighing initial investment costs. It aligns with EU energy targets and supports sustainability.