20150911-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_317kb
报告摘要
Daily Edge Summary - September 11, 2015
Core Content
- PSEi Index: Closed at 6,893.54, down by 0.70%.
- Turnover: PHP6,101.84, down by 19.81%.
- PLDT ADR (USD): 49.33, down by 0.34%.
- PLDT ADR (PHP): 2,311.11, down by 0.35%.
- Ave interbank rate: 2.53%, no change.
- PHP/USD rate: 46.93, down by 0.24%.
Analysts
- Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
- Other Analysts: Michael Bengson, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan
Top Idea & Strategy
- PSEi (6,893.54): Slower 2Q growth and portfolio revisions.
- 2Q15 YoY profit growth: Halved from 1Q15, with core earnings growing 5% YoY.
- 2015F core earnings growth: Revised down to 11% from 14%.
- Portfolio Revisions:
- Replaced EDC, FPH, MBT, MEG, and NIKL with BDO, JFC, MPI, and RRHI in the main model portfolio.
- Replaced EEI and Lopez Holdings with Cebu Air Inc (CEB) and TA in the small-cap portfolio.
- Performance: Main portfolio underperformed the PSEi by 2.5ppt YTD.
Market Talk
- Utilities:
- PSALM terminated SPPC power contract due to alleged non-payment of PHP6.46b.
- EDC secured a PHP5b loan from BPI, BDO, and Security Bank.
- Mining:
- NIKL scaled down operations at Manicani Island and laid off about 200 employees.
- The company failed to secure the Mineral Ore Transport Permit.
- Gaming:
- Sector reversed to aggregate losses in 2Q15.
- Bloomberg Resort Corp (BLOOM) reported deeper losses, while Travellers International Hotel Group (RWM) saw a plunge in profit growth.
Earnings Summary by Sector (Figure 1)
| Sector |
2Q15 Reported (PHPm) |
2Q15 Core (PHPm) |
2Q14 Reported (PHPm) |
2Q14 Core (PHPm) |
YoY Change (Reported) |
YoY Change (Core) |
Company Count |
| Telecoms |
13,869 |
14,096 |
14,508 |
14,304 |
-4.4% |
-1.5% |
2 |
| Utilities |
22,610 |
21,262 |
20,379 |
18,628 |
10.9% |
14.1% |
9 |
| Banks |
22,183 |
21,683 |
21,922 |
21,922 |
1.2% |
-1.1% |
10 |
| Property |
17,427 |
17,427 |
15,260 |
15,260 |
14.2% |
14.2% |
6 |
| Conglomerates |
22,071 |
21,175 |
19,425 |
19,043 |
13.6% |
11.2% |
8 |
| Consumer |
10,033 |
9,999 |
8,039 |
8,383 |
24.8% |
19.3% |
9 |
| Transport |
4,280 |
5,089 |
5,175 |
4,051 |
-17.3% |
25.6% |
2 |
| Mining |
1,016 |
1,043 |
3,598 |
3,505 |
-71.8% |
-70.2% |
4 |
| Media |
1,441 |
1,441 |
791 |
791 |
82.2% |
82.2% |
2 |
| Gaming |
-168 |
-168 |
2,010 |
2,010 |
-108.4% |
-108.4% |
2 |
| Cement/Construction |
2,921 |
2,873 |
2,989 |
2,946 |
-2.3% |
-2.5% |
3 |
| TOTAL |
117,683 |
115,921 |
114,098 |
110,844 |
3.1% |
4.6% |
57 |
Earnings Revisions Summary by Sector (Figure 2)
| Sector |
2014A Core (PHPm) |
2015F Core (PHPm) |
Change from 2014A YoY |
% of Full Year |
| Telecoms |
51,904 |
53,045 |
2.2% |
52.8% |
| Utilities |
61,059 |
73,381 |
20.2% |
55.3% |
| Banks |
83,122 |
97,036 |
16.7% |
50.6% |
| Property |
58,264 |
68,506 |
17.6% |
50.8% |
| Conglomerates |
74,566 |
82,816 |
11.1% |
51.3% |
| Consumer |
36,042 |
42,623 |
18.3% |
54.4% |
| Transport |
11,643 |
16,407 |
40.9% |
57.6% |
| Mining |
11,082 |
8,294 |
-25.2% |
12.6% |
| Media |
3,388 |
4,314 |
27.3% |
55.4% |
| Gaming |
9,610 |
7,330 |
-23.7% |
20.5% |
| Cement/Construction |
9,275 |
11,896 |
28.3% |
45.5% |
| TOTAL |
409,954 |
465,649 |
13.6% |
51.1% |
Model Portfolio Changes (Figure 3)
Main Model Portfolio
| Company |
Weight |
| SMPH |
14.0% |
| MPI |
12.0% |
| AC |
12.0% |
| ALI |
11.0% |
| URC |
10.0% |
| SCC |
9.0% |
| RRHI |
9.0% |
| JFC |
8.0% |
| SECB |
8.0% |
| BDO |
7.0% |
Small-Cap Portfolio
| Company |
Weight |
| ABS |
25.0% |
| FLI |
25.0% |
| CEB |
20.0% |
| CIC |
20.0% |
| TA |
10.0% |
Performance of Model Portfolios (Figure 4)
| Period Ending |
PSEi Return |
Return on Main Portfolio |
Return on Small-cap Portfolio |
Main vs PSEi Return |
Small-cap vs PSEi Return |
| 10-Sep-15 |
-4.7% |
-8.0% |
-3.8% |
-3.3% |
0.8% |
Earnings and Valuations Table (Figure 5)
| Stock |
Share Price (PHP) |
Target Price (PHP) |
Upside (%) |
Rec |
Year |
Net Profit (PHPm) |
EPS (PHP) |
EPS Growth (%) |
PE (x) |
DPS (PHP) |
Yield (%) |
BV/share (PHP) |
P/BV (x) |
Net Gearing (%) |
ROA (%) |
ROE (%) |
| BDO |
96.95 |
117.00 |
21 |
BUY |
2014 |
22,466 |
6.27 |
0.9 |
15.5 |
2.10 |
2.2 |
48.56 |
2.0 |
(3.3) |
1.3 |
13.5 |
| BPI |
84.20 |
94.00 |
12 |
HOLD |
2014 |
18,039 |
4.62 |
(10.9) |
18.2 |
0.91 |
1.1 |
36.64 |
2.3 |
(4.6) |
1.4 |
14.5 |
| CHIB |
42.50 |
47.00 |
11 |
HOLD |
2014 |
5,116 |
2.85 |
(5.9) |
14.9 |
1.00 |
0.0 |
29.71 |
1.4 |
(5.8) |
1.2 |
10.2 |
| EW |
20.15 |
27.00 |
34 |
BUY |
2014 |
2,073 |
1.84 |
(6.1) |
11.0 |
- |
- |
12.38 |
2.5 |
(9.4) |
1.9 |
13.9 |
| MBT |
80.95 |
100.00 |
24 |
BUY |
2014 |
19,614 |
7.15 |
(10.9) |
29.7 |
0.01 |
0.0 |
25.65 |
5.2 |
(13.4) |
1.7 |
16.2 |
| PBB |
57.15 |
77.00 |
35 |
HOLD |
2014 |
5,359 |
4.34 |
(8.5) |
13.2 |
- |
- |
66.02 |
1.6 |
(1.1) |
1.3 |
13.0 |
| CHIB |
42.50 |
47.00 |
11 |
HOLD |
2015F |
5,583 |
3.01 |
5.7 |
14.1 |
1.00 |
2.4 |
30.84 |
2.2 |
(6.6) |
1.2 |
12.7 |
| CHIB |
42.50 |
47.00 |
11 |
HOLD |
2016F |
6,303 |
3.40 |
12.9 |
12.5 |
1.00 |
2.4 |
32.19 |
1.3 |
(10.2) |
1.1 |
10.8 |
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The Week Ahead
- Sept 12: Waterfront Philippines, Inc.
- Sept 15: Alliance Global Group, Inc.
- Sept 17: Filsyn Corporation
- Sept 24: Manila Broadcasting Company
- Sept 25: STI Education Systems Holdings, Inc.
- Sept 30: PAL Holdings, Inc.
Additional Notes
- The report is available in full in the Philippine Strategy report on 11 Sep 2015 for more details.
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