2017年-世界发展银行全球_Technical_Poverty_Estimation_Report___Myanmar_Poverty_and_Living_Conditions_Survey_86页_2mb

Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey Technical Report Summary

Core Content

This document presents a detailed technical analysis of the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) conducted in 2015, focusing on the development of a revised and rebased poverty measure that reflects the living conditions of 2015. The report is part of a joint effort between the Ministry of Planning and Finance (MOPF) and the World Bank's Poverty and Equity Global Practice to provide updated poverty estimates and inform policy decisions.

Main Objectives

The joint analysis had three key objectives:

1. To construct comparable poverty estimates across three survey waves (2004/05, 2009/10, and 2015) using two methodologies.
2. To propose a new poverty estimation method based on the 2015 survey data.
3. To analyze the correlates and determinants of poverty in Myanmar to identify critical human and economic development needs.

Key Contributions

• The report highlights the need for updating poverty estimates every ten years to reflect changes in living conditions and survey methodologies.
• A new poverty line is proposed, calibrated to 2015 living standards, based on a basket of goods and updated calorie norms.
• The new methodology includes consumer durables, which were previously omitted, to better reflect the importance of home assets in household well-being.
• Adult equivalence scales and spatial price deflation are used to adjust for household size and regional price differences.
• Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the robustness of poverty estimates under various assumptions.

Methodology Overview

The report outlines a four-step methodology for estimating poverty:

1. Construction of Consumption Aggregates:

   • Food expenditures are categorized into 12 broad food groups.
   • Non-food expenditures include items such as education, health, and other services.
   • Durables such as electric fans, solar batteries, and mobile phones are included.
   • Housing is considered as a separate component.
   • Adjustments for household size and composition are made using adult equivalence scales.

2. Definition of the New Poverty Line:

   • Based on a calorie norm of 2238 calories per adult equivalent, revised from previous norms.
   • The poverty line is estimated using unit values derived from both household and market data.
   • The methodology accounts for health and education expenditures as part of the non-food basket.

3. Poverty Estimates:

   • The poverty headcount rate is calculated as the proportion of the population living below the poverty line.
   • The poverty gap and squared poverty gap are used to measure the depth and severity of poverty.
   • Poverty is found to be substantially higher in rural areas than in urban areas.

4. Sensitivity Checks:

   • The report includes extensive robustness checks to assess how different assumptions (e.g., inclusion of durables, health expenditures, spatial price deflation) affect poverty estimates.
   • These checks help ensure the reliability and validity of the poverty measures.

Key Findings

• Poverty Headcount (2015): 32.1% of the population were poor, with 9.8% being food poor.
• Rural vs. Urban Poverty: Poverty is significantly higher in rural areas (38.8%) than in urban areas (14.5%).
• Geographic Variation: Coastal areas and Hills and Mountains have higher poverty rates than the Delta and Dry Zone, despite the latter housing two-thirds of Myanmar's poor population.
• Poverty Trends: A decline in poverty is observed from 48.2% in 2004/05 to 32.1% in 2015, consistent with previous findings.

Institutional Arrangements

• A Steering Committee was established in July 2015, with representation from the President's Office, MOPF, and various Ministries.
• The Technical Working Group included representatives from UNDP, ADB, UNICEF, WFP, ILO, UNFPA, and IGC.
• The World Bank and MOPF collaborated closely on the methodology and analysis.

Data and Methodological Details

• The MPLCS collected data on household consumption, including food and non-food expenditures.
• Quantities were converted to a standard unit (kilograms) using conversion factors from previous surveys.
• Prices were estimated using both household-reported unit values and market prices, with imputation methods applied where necessary.
• Outlier correction was performed on both unit values and quantities to ensure data accuracy.
• Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the impact of different assumptions on poverty estimates.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of updating poverty measurement methodologies to reflect current living conditions and to support targeted policy interventions. The new 2015-rebased poverty estimate provides a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of poverty in Myanmar, incorporating durables, spatial price deflation, and updated calorie norms. The findings highlight the persistent challenges in rural areas and the need for continued monitoring of poverty trends to guide effective poverty reduction strategies.