面向2030：多元场景下氢能减碳经济性研究-76页_8mb

Executive Summary

This report analyzes the decarbonization potential and economic viability of green and blue hydrogen in sectors such as petroleum refining, coal chemical industry, steel production, and heavy transportation. Green hydrogen is identified as a critical pathway for reducing carbon emissions when integrated with carbon markets like the Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA). Break-even costs and economic benefits are shown to improve significantly under declining hydrogen costs and increasing carbon prices, with projections indicating feasible large-scale adoption by 2030-2050. Recommendations emphasize expanding carbon markets, establishing green hydrogen standards, leveraging green finance, fostering R&D, and enhancing international cooperation.

Key Findings

• Green and blue hydrogen offer substantial decarbonization benefits compared to fossil fuels, with carbon intensities ranging from 5-30 kg CO2e/kg H2.
• Hydrogen costs are projected to decrease from $30/kg in 2022 to $13/kg in 2030 and below $8/kg by 2050.
• Economic feasibility varies by sector: petroleum refining and coal chemical can reduce costs by 7.7-75% with CEA, hydrometallurgy may replace traditional methods by 2030 with CEA prices ≥$200/ton, and hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks could see TCO reductions.
• Carbon pricing mechanisms (e.g., CEA at $60-$300/ton) and carbon market restarts (e.g., CCER) are crucial for converting decarbonization benefits into economic gains.

Recommendations

• Carbon Market: Expand inclusion of chemical and metallurgical sectors into CEA and restart voluntary mechanisms like CCER.
• Standards and Regulations: Develop national green hydrogen standards and establish conversion mechanisms for carbon reduction benefits.
• Market Mechanisms: Promote green financial tools (e.g., green bonds) and integrate green hydrogen into green finance standards.
• Enterprise Actions: Encourage R&D and pilot projects, particularly among SOEs, to accelerate hydrogen application.
• International Cooperation: Strengthen global coordination for mutual recognition of green hydrogen standards.