2004年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_Performance_and_Regional_Integration_of_the_CIS_Countries_84页_2mb

Summary of "Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries"

Core Content

This report provides a quantitative analysis of the trade performance and regional integration of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, with a particular focus on the low-income members (CIS-7). It evaluates the quality of trade data, the nature of intra-CIS trade, and the potential for trade integration within the CIS bloc.

Main Findings

• Trade Data Quality: The trade data of CIS countries are generally of poor quality. This is due to inconsistent reporting, lack of control over territories, and issues with customs procedures. The data discrepancies are more pronounced in CIS-7 countries and Turkmenistan, where the reported import values are significantly higher than export values, indicating potential trade deflection.

• Trade Performance: The overall trade performance of CIS countries has shown a decline in intra-CIS exports and an increase in extra-CIS exports. From 1991 to 2000, intra-CIS exports dropped by 81%, while extra-CIS exports almost doubled. This suggests a shift in trade direction from the CIS to global markets.

• Export Levels and Growth: CIS-7 countries have been performing only marginally better than other low-income countries in terms of export levels and growth. They have been lagging behind countries that benefit more from globalization.

• Manufactured Trade: The volume of manufactured trade has been declining, which is a concern for economic development. This decline may be due to weak industrial bases and limited diversification of exports.

• Trade Geography: There has been a shift in the trade geography of CIS countries. While they continue to trade extensively among themselves, their trade with the rest of the world has been increasing, particularly with the European Union (EU).

• Intra-Industry Trade: The incidence of intra-industry trade within the CIS is relatively low, suggesting limited specialization and economies of scale.

• Trade Deflection: There is evidence of trade deflection, where trade flows are redirected through Russia and Kazakhstan. This is attributed to weak border control, lack of transparency, and potential corruption in the region.

Key Points on Trade Integration

• CIS Free Trade Area: The CIS free trade area is considered beneficial and trade-facilitating. It includes a free trade regime, mutual recognition of standards, and non-restrictive rules of origin.

• Regional Integration: The report suggests that the CIS integration is not of the "South-South" type, which could be harmful. However, the potential benefits of integration are not being fully realized.

• Recommendations: The study recommends strengthening the legal and administrative framework for intra-CIS trade arrangements. This includes improving data transparency, enhancing customs cooperation, and addressing issues of trade deflection.

Trade Patterns and Models

• Trade Openness: The report analyzes trade openness using standard econometric models. It finds that CIS countries are not significantly underperforming in terms of openness compared to similar countries.

• Gravity Model: The gravity model is used to evaluate trade patterns. It indicates that trade flows have been adjusting, especially after the 1998 Russia crisis, and that the CIS bloc is becoming more integrated with the global economy.

• Comparative Trade Performance: The study compares the trade performance of CIS countries with that of other developing countries, finding that the CIS-7 countries are not performing significantly better than their counterparts.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the CIS trade bloc has potential, the current trade performance and integration are not fully realized. The main challenges include poor data quality, trade deflection, and limited diversification of exports. The study recommends policy actions to improve trade integration and performance within the CIS.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1.1: Shows the ratio of imports (as reported by the importer) to exports (as reported by the exporter), highlighting the distortions in trade data.

• Table 1.2: Presents the intra-CIS trade balance, indicating the imbalance between exports and imports for CIS countries.

• Figure 1.1: Illustrates the composition of CIS trade flows in 2001, showing the dominance of the central CIS countries in trade.

Key Terms

• CIS: Commonwealth of Independent States
• CIS-7: Low-income members of the CIS
• SITC: Standard International Trade Classification
• UN COMTRADE: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database
• Gravity Model: A model used to predict trade flows based on economic size and distance
• Trade Deflection: The redirection of trade flows through third countries

Authors and Contributors

• Lev Freinkman: Senior Economist in the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit of the Europe and Central Asia Region at the World Bank
• Evgeny Polyakov and Carolina Revenco: Consultants to the same department
• Samuel Otoo: Sector Manager
• Cheryl Gray: Department Director
• Olga Pindyuk: Research assistant
• Usha Rani Khanna: Editor
• National Statistical Agencies: Provided data for CIS countries

Data Sources

• UN COMTRADE Database
• World Bank Country Offices in Ukraine and Uzbekistan
• National Statistical Agencies of Armenia, Moldova, and Kyrgyz Republic

Conclusion and Recommendations

The study concludes that while the CIS trade bloc is beneficial, its potential is not being fully utilized. It recommends improving the legal and administrative framework for trade, enhancing data transparency, and addressing the issue of trade deflection to better realize the benefits of regional integration.