2014年-世界发展银行全球_Reducing_Trade_Costs_in_East_Africa___Deep_Regional_Integration_and_Multilateral_Action_114页_1mb

Summary of "Reducing Trade Costs in East Africa: Deep Regional Integration and Multilateral Action"

Core Content

This paper explores the impact of reducing trade costs in East Africa, focusing on the East African Customs Union (EACU) and the potential benefits of multilateral trade liberalization. The main argument is that while tariffs have declined globally, trade costs—such as non-tariff barriers (NTMs) and the costs of business services—remain a significant barrier to trade, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis using a global trade model that includes 10 regions and 18 sectors, with a focus on EACU members: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda.

Main Views and Key Information

Trade Cost Categories

Trade costs are decomposed into three categories:

• Trade facilitation costs: These include border delays, roadblocks, and bribes.
• Non-tariff barriers (NTMs): These have decreased in importance over time, but standards have become more significant as trade barriers.
• Costs of business services: Poor services such as banking, insurance, and transportation contribute significantly to trade costs.

Model Overview

The paper develops a 10-region, 18-sector global trade model with a focus on EACU members. It incorporates:

• Perfectly competitive sectors: Agriculture, utilities, trade, and "other services."
• Imperfectly competitive goods sectors: Seven sectors with increasing returns to scale.
• Services sectors with foreign direct investment (FDI): Seven sectors, including telecommunications, insurance, and professional services.

Data and Methodology

• A new database of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of barriers in 11 business services sectors across 103 countries was developed.
• The World Bank Services Trade Restrictiveness Indices Database provides survey data on regulatory regimes in these sectors.
• The Australian Productivity Commission methodology is used to assess the AVEs of non-discriminatory barriers in Kenya and Tanzania.
• The GTAP 8.1 dataset is employed, and the model also includes tariff data from Kenya, Tanzania, and other regions.
• Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) and trade data by regional partner and sector are used to build the model.
• Estimates of the AVEs for time in trade costs are based on the work of Hummels and Minor, which improves sectoral accuracy in trade facilitation benefits.

Results

• Deep integration within the EACU significantly reduces trade costs and increases welfare for the four member countries, particularly through improved trade facilitation.
• Multilateral liberalization (e.g., through the Tripartite Free Trade Area involving EACU, COMESA, and SADC) could increase the gains from trade cost reductions by two to seven times, depending on the country.
• Reducing non-discriminatory barriers in Kenya and Tanzania yields greater welfare gains than multilateral reduction of discriminatory barriers.
• Sectoral impacts vary widely, with some sectors benefiting more from trade facilitation than others.
• The political economy of regionalism is considered, with the paper highlighting the importance of market access and trade cost reductions for economic development.

Innovation

• This is the first global trade model to numerically assess the liberalization of barriers for both domestic and multinational service providers.
• It incorporates foreign direct investment in services, which is a growing component of modern free trade agreements (FTAs).
• The model accounts for sector-specific capital and productivity effects, enhancing the realism of trade cost analysis.

Key Elasticities

• The paper estimates sector-specific elasticities of supply and conducts sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of different assumptions on trade cost reductions.
• The elasticity of substitution between sector-specific capital and other inputs is calibrated based on observed data and econometric evidence.

Policy Implications

• Regional integration (such as EACU) is beneficial but has limited impact due to the lack of trade diversion.
• Multilateral liberalization offers greater potential for trade cost reductions and economic gains.
• Improving business services is crucial for enhancing trade efficiency and welfare in East Africa.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while deep regional integration within the EACU can yield substantial benefits, extending trade cost reduction initiatives to a broader multilateral framework, such as the Tripartite Free Trade Area, could lead to even greater gains. The model provides a robust framework for assessing the impacts of trade liberalization on trade costs and economic outcomes in the region.