BIS国际清算银行-Rise-of-the-central-bank-digital-currencies_-drivers-approaches-and-technologies_44页_5mb

Summary of BIS Working Paper No. 880: "Rise of the central bank digital currencies: drivers, approaches and technologies"

Core Content

This BIS Working Paper explores the growing interest in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and examines the economic, institutional, and technological drivers behind their development. It provides an in-depth analysis of the motivations for issuing CBDCs, the policy approaches adopted by central banks, and the technical designs being considered. The paper also highlights three advanced CBDC projects: the Chinese DC/EP, the Swedish e-krona, and the Bank of Canada's contingency plan.

Main Viewpoints

• CBDCs are gaining global attention: The concept of CBDCs, once considered niche, is now a major topic of discussion among central banks and the public. The rise of private digital currencies, like Facebook's Libra, and the impact of the pandemic have accelerated interest in CBDCs.

• Motivations vary by country: Central banks have different reasons for pursuing CBDCs. In advanced economies, the focus is often on safety, robustness, and domestic payment efficiency. In emerging market economies, financial inclusion is a key driver.

• Retail vs. Wholesale CBDCs: Retail CBDCs are more likely to be developed in countries with a larger informal economy, while wholesale CBDCs are more advanced in countries with higher financial development. Most central banks are still in the research or pilot phase.

• Technological considerations: While many central banks are exploring distributed ledger technology (DLT) for CBDCs, most are not considering fully anonymous token-based access. Instead, they rely on account-based systems for user identification and transaction tracking.

• Policy approaches and design options: The paper outlines a "CBDC Pyramid" framework to categorise policy approaches and technical designs. Most central banks are leaning towards "Hybrid" or "Intermediated" architectures, where the central bank issues the currency, but private sector entities manage customer-facing activities.

Key Information

CBDC Project Index

• A CBDC project index (CBDCPI) is introduced, which measures the progress of central banks in developing retail or wholesale CBDCs. The index ranges from 0 (no project) to 3 (live CBDC).
• The index is constructed using:
  • Speech scores based on central bank officials' public statements about CBDCs (ranging from -1 to +1).
  • Search interest indices derived from public search trends on CBDC-related terms (Google and Baidu).

Cross-Country Drivers

• Digital infrastructure: Countries with higher mobile phone and internet usage are more likely to have CBDC projects.
• Innovation capacity: Higher innovation scores, as measured by the WIPO Global Innovation Index, correlate with a greater likelihood of CBDC development.
• Informal economy: Larger informal economies are associated with a higher probability of retail CBDC projects.
• Financial development: More developed financial systems are linked to more advanced wholesale CBDC initiatives.
• Public interest: Increased public search interest in CBDCs suggests greater awareness or anticipation of their introduction.

Technical Design Options

• Most central banks are considering Hybrid or Intermediated architectures, where the CBDC is a direct liability of the central bank, but private entities handle customer-facing functions.
• Indirect or synthetic CBDCs, which involve indirect claims on the central bank, are not widely supported.
• DLT is increasingly being considered for CBDCs, although most projects still rely on account-based access rather than fully anonymous token-based systems.

Case Studies

1. China (PBC - DC/EP): China has one of the most advanced CBDC projects, currently in pilot phase in four cities. The DC/EP is designed to be a cash-like liability accessible to the public and foreign visitors.
2. Sweden (Riksbank - e-krona): Sweden has a significant informal economy, which has driven interest in a retail CBDC. The Riksbank is conducting a pilot with Accenture to develop a technical solution.
3. Canada (Bank of Canada): The Bank of Canada views a retail CBDC as a contingency plan in case cash use declines or private digital currencies gain traction. It has not yet decided to issue one.

Conclusion

• CBDCs are becoming a significant area of focus for central banks worldwide.
• The motivations for CBDC development are diverse, with some countries emphasizing financial inclusion, others focusing on payment efficiency or financial stability.
• While the technology of CBDCs is evolving, most central banks are not moving toward fully anonymous systems.
• The paper highlights the importance of understanding the unique economic and institutional contexts in which CBDC projects are being developed, as these influence the design and policy approach.
• Further research and experimentation are needed to determine the optimal CBDC architecture and its implications for monetary policy, financial systems, and international payments.

Data and Methodology

• A CBDC database was developed to track global CBDC initiatives.
• The analysis uses cross-sectional regression with an ordered probit model to assess the drivers of CBDC development.
• Data sources include:
  • Central bank speeches
  • Central bank websites
  • Google Trends and Baidu search data
  • World Bank and WIPO statistics

References and Appendices

• Annex A describes the data collection process for CBDC indicators.
• Annex B provides a table summarising the status of CBDC projects across countries.
• The paper also includes an online annex with additional empirical results.