日前市场价格负面影响的发生与影响研究-英-29页_1mb

The Commission for Electricity and Gas Regulation (CREG) conducted a study on the occurrence and impact of negative prices in the day-ahead electricity market in Europe during the spring and summer of 2023. This summary highlights key findings from the analysis.

Negative prices, observed in various Core bidding zones, reached unprecedented lows in 2023, with the Netherlands experiencing the deepest prices at -500€/MWh. These occurrences were driven by factors such as high start-up and ramping costs for thermal units, limited market player exposure to prices due to contracts or subsidies, and increased renewable generation (especially solar) during peak production times, like midday.

Statistical data shows a rise in negative hours compared to previous years. For instance, the Netherlands recorded over 200 negative hours in 2023, predominantly during daylight hours with solar generation surges. This trend is influenced by market coupling mechanisms, which aim to optimize flows but can border on maximum export limits.

Second auctions, designed to mitigate extreme price spikes, were triggered multiple times in 2023. However, their effectiveness was poor: prices often worsened or remained unchanged, and they caused significant operational delays, reducing contingency for market issues and potentially leading to decoupling events with substantial welfare impacts.

The study also examines consumer impacts. Fixed-price contracts buffer effects, but dynamic pricing contracts offer incentives for consumers to adjust consumption during low or negative price hours. These contracts can reduce bills but introduce risks, such as high costs during positive spike periods, especially for those with limited flexibility.

In conclusion, CREG emphasizes the need for alternative market designs to address negative prices effectively and cautions consumers against excessive reliance on dynamic contracts due to potential financial risks. The findings stress improving market mechanisms and consumer protections.