世界经济论坛-促进2019年有效能源转型（英文）-2019.3-40页_7mb

Fostering Effective Energy Transition: Summary of the 2019 Energy Transition Index (ETI)

Core Content

The Energy Transition Index (ETI) 2019 is a report by the World Economic Forum that evaluates the performance and readiness of countries to transition to a more sustainable, secure, and inclusive energy system. It assesses 115 countries using 40 indicators across three key dimensions: economic development and growth, energy security and access, and environmental sustainability. The report emphasizes the need for multistakeholder collaboration, policy support, and technological innovation to accelerate the global energy transition.

Main Findings

Overall Trends

• The global average ETI score saw its lowest year-on-year increase in five years, indicating slowed progress on energy transition.
• Western and Northern European countries continue to lead the rankings, with Sweden maintaining the top position, followed by Switzerland and Norway.
• The top 10 countries are diverse in terms of primary energy mix, energy system structure, and natural resource endowments, but all share strong institutional and regulatory frameworks, attractive investment environments, and high transition readiness.

Energy Transition Readiness

• High-ranking countries score well on transition readiness, which includes policy stability, effective governance, financial systems, and innovative business environments.
• Lagging countries struggle with weak regulatory frameworks, unstable policies, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and strong path dependency on fossil fuels.
• Countries like Nigeria, Mozambique, and Venezuela are particularly challenged due to legacy energy systems and low transition readiness.

Key Insights from Peer-Group Analysis

1. Advanced Economies

• These countries rank high on the ETI, but still face the challenge of balancing economic growth and environmental sustainability.
• Energy intensity in Advanced Economies has slowed its decline, and carbon intensity and per capita emissions have not improved significantly.
• Household electricity prices are rising faster than industrial prices, raising equity concerns in energy transition, as seen in France’s Yellow Vest protests and the U.S. Green New Deal.

2. Emerging and Developing Asia

• Economic growth, urbanization, and improving living standards are major drivers of energy demand.
• Coal remains a significant component of the energy mix, particularly in South Africa and Mongolia.
• The region faces the challenge of navigating economic growth with environmental sustainability.

3. Sub-Saharan Africa

• Universal access to electricity and clean cooking fuels remain persistent gaps.
• Affordability and reliability of power supply are major challenges.
• Strong regulatory frameworks, policy stability, and effective governance are essential to attract investment and realize economic benefits from the region’s natural resources.

4. Latin America and the Caribbean

• This region has the highest environmental sustainability score due to large hydroelectric capacity and rapid renewable energy adoption.
• Electrification of transport could further improve environmental sustainability.
• Regional electricity market integration, operational efficiency in oil and gas, and policy harmonization are key to improving other energy triangle dimensions.

5. Middle East and North Africa

• The region must diversify its fuel mix and reduce fossil fuel subsidies to support economic restructuring.
• Energy transition requires developing human capital and reducing dependency on fossil fuel exports to ensure long-term economic and environmental stability.

The Complexity of Energy Transition

The energy system is interconnected with economic, technological, and sociopolitical systems, making the transition multidimensional and complex.

Energy-Economy System

• Economic growth is closely tied to energy consumption, but decarbonization requires economic diversification, energy efficiency, and international cooperation for technology transfer and capacity building.

Energy-Technology System

• A broader range of low-carbon technologies is needed for commercialization and rapid deployment.
• Policies and incentives for research and development and an entrepreneurial environment are crucial for innovation.
• Overcoming legacy technology lock-ins requires institutional redesign and consumer engagement.

Energy-Society System

• Energy transition must be equitable, addressing distributional impacts, community livelihood concerns, and stranded infrastructure.
• Inclusiveness and affordability are key to a just transition.

Challenges and Progress

Economic Development and Growth

• Global energy demand is projected to rise by 25% by 2040, with emerging economies as the main drivers.
• Coal consumption in Asia has increased after three years of decline, highlighting ongoing reliance on fossil fuels.
• Economic growth is not decoupling from energy consumption, and energy intensity remains high.

Energy Security and Access

• Energy security has improved due to increased electricity access in Emerging and Developing Asia.
• Fuel import bills have risen due to geopolitical tensions and price volatility.
• Cyber-resilience and infrastructure resilience are becoming critical priorities.

Environmental Sustainability

• Global carbon emissions from fuel combustion have accelerated in 2017, while clean energy investment declined in 2018.
• Solar PV installations reached a record in 2018, despite tariff barriers and market challenges.
• The Paris Agreement goals require global emissions to reach net zero by 2050, but only 16 countries have consistent targets aligned with this.

Conclusion

The 2019 Energy Transition Index highlights that while some countries are leading the way in energy transition, global progress remains slow. A complex and interdependent system requires coordinated action across economic, technological, and sociopolitical domains. Inclusiveness, affordability, and equity must be central to any energy transition strategy. The report underscores the importance of policy support, investment, technological innovation, and multistakeholder collaboration in achieving a sustainable, secure, and inclusive global energy system.