世界经济论坛-促进有效的能源转型-2018.3-44页-3mb

Fostering Effective Energy Transition Summary

Core Content

The Fostering Effective Energy Transition report, published by the World Economic Forum in March 2018 with support from McKinsey & Company, provides a comprehensive fact-based framework to support decision-making in the global energy transition. It emphasizes the need for a systemic, multistakeholder approach to address the complex and multifaceted challenges of transforming energy systems to be more inclusive, sustainable, affordable, and secure.

The report outlines a strategic initiative aimed at:

• Establishing an insight-rich framework to assess country-level readiness for energy transition.
• Convening stakeholders to foster common and inclusive understanding of national energy priorities.
• Creating an inclusive platform for public-private collaboration to develop predictable yet flexible policy roadmaps.
• Highlighting good practices from global peers to accelerate local efforts.

Main Viewpoints

1. The Need for a Systemic Approach

• The energy system is undergoing unprecedented change, driven by technological innovation, policy shifts, and changing consumption patterns.
• No single actor (government, industry, or society) can drive the energy transition alone. Collaboration and multistakeholder engagement are essential.
• A common fact base and transparent understanding of challenges are required to facilitate effective dialogue and decision-making.

2. The Energy Transition Index (ETI)

• The ETI evaluates 114 countries based on system performance and transition readiness.
• System performance measures current performance in terms of:
  • Inclusive economic development
  • Secure and reliable energy access
  • Environmental sustainability
• Transition readiness is defined by six key dimensions:
  • Investment and capital availability
  • Effective regulation and political commitment
  • Stable institutions and governance
  • Supportive infrastructure
  • Innovative business environment
  • Human capital
  • Ability of the current energy system to accommodate change

3. Key Findings from the ETI

• Over 80% of countries improved their energy systems in the last five years, but more effort is needed to resolve global energy challenges.
• Environmental sustainability has seen the lowest improvement among the three triangle dimensions.
• Security and access remains a major gap between high- and low-performing countries.
• Household electricity prices have been rising in many countries despite falling fuel prices, increasing the need for affordable energy solutions.
• Fossil fuel subsidies and energy intensity reduction are important improvement levers that have synergistic effects across the energy triangle.
• Countries with high performance and enablers show more balanced improvements across the three imperatives.
• Country-specific roadmaps are necessary due to diverse transition paths and unique circumstances.

Key Information

• The energy system is complex and involves diverse stakeholders, various energy sources, and all energy-consuming sectors.
• The energy transition is not a linear process and requires flexibility and adaptability in the face of high uncertainty.
• Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies and digitalization are transforming energy systems, enabling more efficient and automated operations.
• Renewable energy technologies have become more affordable, contributing to job creation and emission reductions.
• Decentralization, electrification, and digitalization are driving changes in the electricity system, reshaping consumer roles and business models.
• Global energy demand is growing due to emerging economies, while energy productivity and GDP decoupling are becoming more evident.
• Policy shifts, such as the Paris Agreement and phaseout of fossil fuels, are shaping the future of energy systems.
• Energy efficiency improvements have reduced energy intensity at a rate of 2.1% per year, contributing to climate change mitigation.

Way Forward

• The ETI serves as a tool for tracking progress, identifying strengths and weaknesses, and supporting the development of energy transition roadmaps.
• Countries should benchmark against peers and develop tailored strategies that reflect their specific conditions.
• Long-term value should be the main criterion for optimizing energy transition roadmaps.
• Stakeholder collaboration, policy flexibility, and investment in innovation are essential to foster an effective energy transition.

Conclusion

The Fostering Effective Energy Transition project underscores the importance of collaboration, data-driven decision-making, and country-specific strategies in addressing the global energy transition. By understanding the three imperatives of the energy triangle and the six enablers of transition readiness, countries can better navigate the complexities and opportunities of transforming their energy systems to support economic, social, and environmental development.