2017欧洲移动经济报告（英文版）_38页_3mb

The Mobile Economy in Europe (2017)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the mobile economy in Europe in 2017, focusing on subscriber growth, network migration, revenue trends, and the evolving market structure. It also highlights the role of mobile in driving economic growth, innovation, and digital transformation across the region.

Key Findings

Subscriber Growth and Market Saturation

• Saturation: Europe has reached high levels of mobile subscriber penetration, with 84% of the population (457 million individuals) subscribed by mid-2017.
• Limited Growth: Future subscriber growth is expected to be limited due to market saturation, with only 12 million additional subscribers projected by 2020 at a CAGR of 0.7%.
• Penetration Uplift: Growth is likely to be concentrated in markets like France and Spain, where penetration is still below 80% and 78% respectively.
• SIM Connections: Multiple SIM ownership means there are 671 million SIM connections in Europe, with a ratio of 1.5 SIMs per person expected by 2020.

4G Migration and 5G Outlook

• 4G Growth: 4G connections in Europe reached 226 million by the end of 2016, representing 34% of total connections (excluding M2M).
• 4G Penetration: 4G connections are expected to reach 61% of total by 2020, surpassing 3G.
• 5G Projections: Europe is projected to have 214 million 5G connections by 2025, which is 31% of total connections.
• 5G Leadership: The European Commission is pushing for leadership in 5G, with a 5G Action Plan and public-private partnerships (5G-PPP).
• 5G Rollout: 5G is expected to initially outpace 4G adoption, but the two will converge by 2025.
• 5G Coverage: By 2025, 5G is expected to cover 73% of the population, with Germany, the UK, and France leading in adoption.

Revenue Trends and Capex

• Revenue Stabilisation: Mobile revenue in Europe has shown signs of stabilisation, rising from €143 billion in 2016 to €146 billion by 2020, with a CAGR of 0.4%.
• Data Traffic Growth: Mobile data traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR of 42% between 2016 and 2022, reaching 15.8 exabytes per month.
• Capex Investment: Over the past five years, mobile operators in Europe have invested €129 billion in capex, with 4G investment peaking and 5G investment expected to rise significantly after 2020.

Economic Impact and Employment

• GDP Contribution: Mobile technologies and services contributed 3.4% of GDP in 2016, equivalent to €540 billion, and this is expected to grow to 3.9% (€674 billion) by 2020.
• Employment: The mobile ecosystem supported 2.6 million jobs in 2016, including 11 million direct jobs and an additional 1.5 million indirect jobs.
• Public Funding: The mobile sector contributes significantly to public funding, raising €100 billion in 2016 through general taxation, including VAT and corporate taxes.

Innovation and Technology

• Mobile Innovation: Europe continues to see innovation across the mobile ecosystem, particularly in the areas of IoT and AI.
• IoT Development: Mobile operators are leading the development of the IoT market, with the rollout of LPWA solutions and NB-IoT networks.
• AI Integration: AI is becoming a key enabler of the IoT ecosystem, with operators launching chatbots and digital assistants to enhance consumer engagement.
• Smartphone Adoption: Smartphones account for 65% of total connections in 2016 and are expected to rise to 70% by 2020.

Market Structure and M&A

• M&A Activity: Europe has seen significant M&A activity over the last five years, with around 20 mobile operators merging or closing.
• Convergence: Fixed/mobile/cable convergence is reshaping the market, with operators focusing on product bundling (triple or quad play) to improve revenue mix and customer retention.
• Market Changes: The number of countries with three or fewer licensed mobile operators is increasing due to mergers and closures.
• Regulatory Impact: Some proposed mergers, such as Telenor/TeliaSonera in Denmark and Three/O2 in the UK, were blocked due to regulatory concerns.

Policies and Future Outlook

• Digital Single Market Strategy: The European Commission's Digital Single Market strategy is a top priority, aiming to drive economic growth through improved digital access and regulation.
• Spectrum Reform: Spectrum reform is critical for the development of a true Digital Single Market, with operators calling for better policy frameworks.
• 5G Regulation: The proposed European ePrivacy Regulation and the European Electronic Communications Code are key policy considerations for the future of mobile in Europe.
• 5G Investment: While the impact of 5G on capex is unclear, operators estimate that 5G deployment could cost between €300 billion and €500 billion across Europe.
• Network Evolution: The evolution of 4G technology continues, with advancements such as MIMO, carrier aggregation, and 256 QAM improving network performance and enabling faster speeds.

Summary of Key Metrics