2025年欧洲移动经济报告（英）_47页_3mb

GSMA & Mobile Industry Summary

Core Content

The GSMA is a global organization that unifies the mobile ecosystem to drive innovation and positive societal change. It focuses on three main pillars: Connectivity for Good, Industry Services and Solutions, and Outreach. The GSMA also operates GSMA Intelligence, which provides comprehensive data, analysis, and forecasts for the mobile industry, serving as a key resource for operators, vendors, regulators, and financial institutions.

Key Trends in the Mobile Ecosystem

• 5G Adoption in Europe: By the end of 2024, 5G accounted for 30% of mobile connections in Europe, equivalent to over 200 million connections. However, 5G has not yet significantly impacted mobile revenue growth, which remains in the low single digits in most European markets.

• Shift to 5G-Advanced and 5G RedCap: The focus is shifting from the initial 5G deployments to more advanced technologies such as 5G-Advanced and 5G RedCap, which are expected to unlock new use cases and monetization opportunities.

• Open Gateway Initiative: As of December 2024, 67 operator groups have joined the GSMA Open Gateway initiative, representing 75% of global mobile connections. Europe is a leading region in this initiative, despite accounting for only 10% of global mobile connections.

• Generative AI (GenAI): European operators are leading in genAI adoption, focusing on network optimization, security, and customer service. They are also forming strategic partnerships and developing telecom-specific large language models (LLMs).

• Aerial Connectivity (Satellites and NTNs): Momentum is building behind aerial connectivity solutions, with European authorities taking steps to support satellite and non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) as a complement to terrestrial connectivity.

Economic Impact

• Mobile Internet Users: In 2024, 471 million people in Europe used mobile internet, representing 79% of the population. This is expected to grow to 494 million by 2030, with an 84% penetration rate.

• Mobile Internet Penetration: The mobile internet penetration rate in Europe is expected to increase from 88% in 2024 to 89% in 2030.

• Economic Value Added: In 2023, mobile technologies and services contributed 5% of GDP in Europe, adding almost €1.1 trillion to the economy. This is expected to grow to €1.2 trillion by 2030.

• Job Creation: The mobile ecosystem in Europe supported over 3 million jobs in 2023, including 2 million direct jobs and 1.4 million indirect jobs.

• Fiscal Contribution: The mobile ecosystem contributed €120 billion to public funding in 2023, primarily through employment taxes and social security.

Mobile Revenue and Investment

• Mobile Revenue Growth: Mobile revenue growth in Europe is expected to remain in the low single digits, prompting operators to diversify their services and explore new revenue streams.

• Investment in Capex: Over the past five years, European mobile operators have invested over €160 billion in mobile capital expenditure (capex). This is expected to continue, with annual capex projected to exceed €25 billion through 2030.

• Capex to Revenue Ratio: The capex to revenue ratio in Europe was 16% at the end of 2023, indicating a peak in the 5G investment cycle.

5G Benchmarking and Index

• 5G Connectivity Index (5GI): GSMA Intelligence's 5GI provides a comprehensive assessment of 5G in 39 markets, focusing on infrastructure and services. It is built around 17 indicators, divided into six pillars, and normalised using the 'minimum-maximisation' method to ensure comparability.

• 5G Infrastructure Pillars:

  • Spectrum: Includes low-band, mid-band, and mmWave spectrum.
  • Network: Encompasses 5G base stations, coverage, and standalone networks.

• 5G Services Pillars:

  • Affordability: Covers data and device affordability.
  • Adoption: Includes subscriber penetration, device shipments, and FWA penetration.
  • Market Development: Focuses on data traffic per user and revenue growth.

Policy Recommendations

• Re-evaluate Regulatory Framework: Update the existing regulatory framework to align with current market realities and challenges.

• Fairness in Internet Value Chain: Implement measures to ensure fairness by requiring content and application providers (CAPs) to negotiate with internet service providers (ISPs) on IP data transport services.

• Long-term Investment Focus: Review the EU Merger Regulation to emphasize long-term investment effects.

• Spectrum Policy: Adopt a pro-investment approach to EU spectrum policy, including best practices for spectrum auction designs and licensing costs.

• Circular Economy and Green Investment: Apply circular economy principles to network equipment and incorporate the EU taxonomy for green investment in electronic communication networks.

Future Projections

• Subscriber Growth: Mobile subscribers in Europe are expected to reach 527 million by 2030, with a 0.2% CAGR.

• SIM Connections: SIM connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT) are projected to reach 816 million by 2030, with a 0.4% CAGR.

• IoT Connections: Europe is expected to gain another 200 million licensed cellular IoT connections by 2030, driven by smart utilities and tracking and logistics.

• Data Traffic: Mobile data traffic per connection is expected to increase significantly, reaching almost 50 GB per month by 2030.

Conclusion

The mobile industry in Europe is a significant contributor to the economy, supporting over 3 million jobs and adding €1.1 trillion in economic value in 2023. The shift towards 5G-Advanced and 5G RedCap, along with the growth of IoT and the expansion of aerial connectivity, is expected to drive further economic benefits. However, achieving these goals requires strategic policy reforms and continued investment in digital infrastructure.