《全球移动经济发展2021》-65页_5mb

The Mobile Economy 2021 Summary

Core Content

The GSMA Intelligence report provides an in-depth analysis of the global mobile industry, highlighting its role in economic growth, technological advancement, and social impact, especially in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Main Points

1. Subscriber Growth and Market Trends

• Subscriber Growth: By the end of 2020, 5.2 billion people were mobile subscribers, representing 67% of the global population. Subscriber growth is expected to slow, with nearly 500 million new subscribers by 2025, mostly from Asia Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa.
• 4G and 5G Adoption: 4G is nearing its peak, with 60% of global mobile connections expected by 2023. 5G is accelerating, with commercial availability in all regions by 2021, and expected to account for just over a fifth of total mobile connections by 2025.
• Digital Transformation: Consumers are increasingly going digital, with over 1 billion additional mobile internet users expected by 2025. Smartphone adoption is also on the rise, reaching over 80% of total mobile connections.

2. Economic Impact of Mobile

• Economic Contribution: Mobile technologies and services generated $4.4 trillion in economic value added in 2020, accounting for 5.1% of global GDP. This is projected to grow to nearly $5 trillion by 2025.
• Job Creation: The mobile ecosystem directly supports 12 million jobs, with an additional 13 million jobs supported indirectly.

3. 5G Commercialisation and Innovation

• 5G Momentum: 5G commercialisation is gathering pace, with operators expanding their networks and services. By 2025, 5G will account for over 80% of total network capex.
• 5G Use Cases: 5G is driving enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) and fixed wireless access (FWA). Emerging applications include cloud gaming, augmented reality (AR), and virtual reality (VR).
• mmWave Spectrum: The mmWave ecosystem is showing signs of market readiness, with spectrum availability and growing device support.

4. Policy and Investment

• Government Role: Policies should focus on accelerating investment and innovation, effective spectrum management, and fair competition.
• Spectrum Allocation: Governments need to ensure harmonised spectrum for 5G, particularly in mid and high bands. The report recommends 80-100 MHz of contiguous spectrum in mid-bands and around 800 MHz in high bands.
• Spectrum Pricing: Competitive and fair pricing is crucial to support affordable and high-quality 5G services.

5. Social Impact and Digital Inclusion

• Digital Inclusion: Mobile is playing a key role in enhancing digital and financial inclusion, especially in underserved areas.
• Social Challenges: Mobile technology is being used to support healthcare solutions, social welfare distribution, and mobility data analysis to aid pandemic response.

Key Information

• 5G Coverage: By 2025, 5G will cover over 20% of the global population, with China accounting for nearly half of all 5G connections.
• Smartphone Market: The smartphone industry is adapting to a transformed market, with a longer replacement cycle and a shift towards lower-cost devices.
• Consumer Demand: Consumers are interested in video streaming, live sports, and cloud gaming, with 5G being a key enabler for these services.
• Operator Investment: Mobile operators are expected to invest $900 billion in their networks from 2021 to 2025, with 80% allocated to 5G.

Conclusion

The mobile industry is a vital component of the global economy, with significant contributions to GDP, employment, and social development. Despite the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, the sector has shown resilience and is poised for recovery and growth. The continued expansion of 5G and the digital transformation of industries will be key drivers of this growth, supported by effective policies and innovation.