20180531-大华银行-Markets_Overview_6页_223kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (31 May 2018)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of global economic and financial market developments, including key economic indicators, central bank actions, currency movements, equity performance, bond yields, and commodity prices as of 31 May 2018. It also outlines upcoming data releases and market holidays.

Main Highlights

Market Events and Data Releases

New Zealand: The ANZ Business Outlook survey for May is scheduled for 9am SGT.
Australia: The CAPEX report for Q1 is set for 9:30am SGT.
Europe: Flash French and Italian CPIs for April, and the Euro area CPI report, will be released.
US: Key data includes personal income and spending for April, the core PCE deflator, Chicago PMI, and pending home sales.
Canada: 1Q GDP report is also released today.

Currency Movements

Asian currencies stabilized after Italy's political concerns eased.
USD/CNY traded near 6.43 before pulling back to 6.42.
USD/SGD pulled back below 1.34 after failing to break above 1.35.
The Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) rose from 109.40 to 109.70.
Bank Indonesia raised its 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, capping USD/IDR just under 14,000.

Central Bank Outlook

Fed: Expected to have a couple of speakers tonight, with Fed Governor Lael Brainard's speech on Friday being the main focus.
Bank of Canada (BoC): Kept rates unchanged at 1.25%, but signaled a possible rate hike in July due to inflation risks.
IMF: Maintained its growth forecast for China at 6.6% for 2018, but warned about excessive credit and debt growth.
Bank of Thailand (BoT): Has kept its benchmark repo rate at 1.50% since mid-2015, emphasizing the need for accommodative policy.

Key Economic Indicators

US Data

Mortgage Applications: Declined by 2.9% to 356.1, the lowest since January 2016.
ADP Payrolls: Rose by 178k in May, consistent with the 190k forecast.
1Q GDP Growth: Revised to 2.2% saar from 2.3% previously.
Core PCE Deflator: Increased to 2.3% saar in 1Q, down from the advance estimate of 2.5%.
Trade Deficit: Narrowed slightly to USD68.4bn in April, contrary to market expectations of a widening.
Wholesale Inventories: Flat in April.
Retail Inventories: Rose 0.6% m/m.
Personal Spending: Up 0.4% in April.
Factory Orders: Up 1.6% in April.
Factory Orders Ex Transportation: Up 0.3% in April.

Euro Area Data

French CPI: Expected to rebound to 1.6% y/y after Easter effects.
Italian CPI: Expected to rebound to 1.0% y/y.
Euro Area CPI: Expected to rebound to 1.6% y/y.
Germany: HICP rose to 2.2% y/y in May, driven by energy costs. Real retail sales increased by 2.3% m/m, and employment rose by 35k.
Spain: HICP increased to 2.1% y/y from 1.1% previously.
European Commission Sentiment Index: Resilient, edging down by 0.2pts to 112.5.

Asia Data

South Korea: Industrial production rose by 3.4% YoY in April.
China: May PMI data is expected, with the composite PMI at 54.1 previously.
Thailand: Trade balance and CPI data will be released.
Malaysia: Trade balance at 14.69bn MYR in April.
Indonesia: CPI and core CPI data to be released on 1 June.
Philippines: SE PSEi closed at 7470.14, down 1.74% ytd.
Taiwan: CPI at 1.98% y/y, CPI Core at 1.30% y/y.
Japan: Bond yields rose, with the 10-year JGB at 0.04%.
UK: Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Long Gilt at 1.26%.

Equities Performance

US Markets: Major indexes erased Tuesday's losses, with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, S&P 500 up 1.27%, and Nasdaq up 0.89%.
European Markets: Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB rallied 2%.
Asia Markets: Tokyo Nikkei 225 fell 1.52%, FTSE Straits Times Index fell 2.12%, and others also showed mixed performance.

Commodities

Gold: Prices were steady as dollar strength was offset by political concerns.
Oil: Prices rebounded sharply to above $77/bbl, supported by OPEC and non-OPEC cooperation.

Bond Yields

US: 2-year Treasury note at 2.41%, 10-year at 2.86%.
Japan: 10-year JGB at 0.04%.
Euro Area: 10-year Bund at 0.37%.
UK: 10-year Long Gilt at 1.26%.

Interest Rates

USD: Fed Funds Rate at 1.50-1.75%.
EUR: Refinancing Rate at 0.00%.
GBP: Repo Rate at 0.50%.
AUD: Official Cash Rate at 1.50%.
NZD: Official Cash Rate at 1.75%.
JPY: Official Cash Rate at 0-0.10%.
MYR: O/N Policy Rate at 3.25%.
IDR: 7-day Repo Rate at 4.75%.
THB: 1-day Repo Rate at 1.50%.
PHP: O/N Reverse Repo at 3.25%.
INR: Repo Rate at 6.00%.
TWD: Discount Rate at 1.375%.
KRW: Base Rate at 1.50%.

FX Forecasts

USD/CNY: UOB model predicts a central parity fixing rate of 6.4193, with spot consolidating above 6.40.
USD/SGD: UOB model estimates the implied spot rate at 1.3490.
USD/CAD: Broke below 1.29 after a European morning trade above 1.30.
USD/IDR: Capped just under 14,000.
EUR/USD: Recovered to 1.1676 after EUR rebounded from 10-month lows.
GBP/USD: Rose above 1.33.
GBP/JPY: Rose above 145.

Market Holidays

Indonesia: Pancasila Day (Jun 1), Hari Raya Aidilfitri (Jun 13–19), Hari Raya Puasa (Jun 15).
New Zealand: Queen’s Birthday (Jun 4).
South Korea: Memorial Day (Jun 6).
Australia: Queen’s Birthday Holiday (Jun 11).
Philippines: Independence Day (Jun 12).
China/Hong Kong/Taiwan: Dragon Boat Day (Jun 18).
Hong Kong: HKSAR Establishment (Jul 2).
US: Independence Day (Jul 4).
Japan: Marine Day (Jul 16).

Disclaimer

This document is for informational purposes only.
It is not an offer, recommendation, or advice to buy or sell any investment product.
UOB Group may have trading positions in the securities mentioned and may issue differing reports.
No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.

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