20180709-大华银行-Markets_Overview_6页_226kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (09 July 2018)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of global economic and financial market developments for the week of 09 July 2018, covering key data releases, central bank outlooks, foreign exchange (FX) rates, stock indices, interest rates, bond yields, and commodity prices. It also highlights market holidays and events.

Main Economic Highlights

United States

Key Data Releases:
- Non-Farm Payrolls: Rose by 213k in June, slightly above expectations. Annual growth in non-farm payrolls remained steady at 1.6% y/y for the fourth consecutive month.
- Manufacturing Payrolls: Increased by 36k, the largest recorded this year.
- Unemployment Rate: Rose to 4.0% in June from 3.8%.
- Unit Labor Costs: Increased 3.1% y/y in 1Q, the highest since Q4 2013.
- Trade Deficit: Full trade deficit for May was USD43.1bn, the smallest since October 2016.
- Consumer Confidence: US consumer confidence data for June is expected on Friday.
- Inflation Data: Core PCE deflator in May rose more than expected, with June inflation data highly anticipated.
- PPI and CPI: PPI is released on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday.
- Fed Policy: The Fed is set to release its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Friday, with FOMC Chair Jerome Powell's testimony scheduled for Tuesday (17 July).

Europe

Key Data Releases:
- Germany: Trade data for May, BoF business survey for June, and Sentix Investor Sentiment Index for July.
- France & Italy: Industrial production reports for May on Tuesday.
- Spain: House sales for May on Wednesday and final HICP for June on Friday.
- Euro Area: Aggregate industrial production for May on Thursday.
- HICP Data: Final June HICP for Germany and France on Thursday.
- Industrial Production: Germany reported a strong 2.6% m/m increase in May, pushing annual growth to 3.1% y/y.
- France: Trade deficit of EUR6.0bn in May, the largest since February last year.
- Italy: Retail sales rose better than expected by 0.8% m/m but only 0.4% y/y.

United Kingdom

Key Data Releases:
- Trade, Industrial Production, and Services Reports: Released on Tuesday.
- GDP Growth Estimate: First monthly GDP estimate for the UK is released.
- RICS Housing Survey: Released on Thursday.
- BoE Surveys: Credit Conditions and Bank Liability surveys for 2Q.
Housing Market: UK house prices rose 0.3% m/m in June, with annual growth at 1.8% y/y.
Unemployment: UK's ILO unemployment rate was at 4.2% for May.

Japan

Key Data Releases:
- Machinery Orders: Released on Wednesday, following upbeat Tankan capex forecasts.
- Goods PPI & Tertiary Industry Index: Released on Wednesday.
- Final Industrial Production: Released on Friday.
FX Reserves: Japanese Yen remains stable, with USD/JPY slightly below 110.50.

Australia

Key Data Releases:
- Business & Consumer Confidence: NAB and Westpac surveys on Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Housing Finance: Released on Wednesday.
Economic Outlook: Focus on confidence indicators and housing data.

New Zealand

Key Data Releases:
- Consumer Spending: Released on Tuesday.
- Manufacturing PMI: Released on Friday.
- REINZ Housing Report: Likely to be released late in the week.
FX: NZD weakened slightly, with the currency likely to remain under pressure.

Central Bank Outlook

Bank of Canada (BoC): Expected to raise the overnight rate by 25bps to 1.5% on Wednesday. Market pricing suggests a high probability of this move.
Federal Reserve (Fed): Key speeches from Fed officials throughout the week, with the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Friday and Jerome Powell's testimony on Tuesday (17 July).
Malaysia & South Korea: Both central banks are expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 3.25% and 1.5% respectively on 11 and 12 July.

FX Rates

USD/CNY: The CNY strengthened to end the week at 6.6427, with the central parity fixing rate estimated at 6.6344 for the next day.
EUR/USD: Reached a high of 1.1767.
EUR/GBP: Reached 0.8850, with GBP showing a late lift.
USD/SGD: Fell below 1.36 to 1.3575.
SGD NEER: Recovered to a premium of about 0.70% above the estimated mid-point.
Asian Currencies: Stabilized as USD showed signs of stabilization.
SG Government Bonds: Staged a broad rally following a sharp equity market sell-off, particularly in property-related sectors.

Equities

Major US Indices: Rose on the week, with the Dow Jones up 0.41%, S&P 500 up 0.85%, and NASDAQ up 1.34%, despite concerns over the US-China trade war.
Asian Indices: Mixed performance, with some indices falling sharply due to market volatility and the impact of property cooling measures in Singapore.

US Treasuries

Yields: Slight rise in 10-year Treasury yields to 2.84%.
Curve Slope: Remained resilient to downward pressure on longer-dated yields.

Commodities

Gold: Fell on Friday but bounced off session lows.
Oil Prices: Mixed, with US crude futures rising due to short-covering and Brent slipping due to trade tensions and increased Saudi production.

Economic Data Calendar Highlights

China: Will release key data including CPI & PPI, FX reserves, monetary aggregates, and trade data (13 Jul).
Singapore: Will release advance 2Q GDP figures on 13 Jul, expected to range between 4.1% and 4.4% y/y.
Asia: Heavy data calendar with multiple releases across the week, including trade data, CPI, PPI, and FX reserves.

Market Holidays/Events

Japan: Marine Day on 16 July.
Thailand: Asrnha Bucha Day on 27 July, King’s Birthday on 30 July.
Australia: Bank Holiday on 6 August.
Singapore: National Day on 9 August.
India & Philippines: Independence Day and other events on 15 and 22 August.
Other Countries: Multiple holidays across Asia and the Pacific.

Key Takeaways

The US economy showed resilience with strong non-farm payrolls and a relatively stable unemployment rate.
The US-China trade war and CNY movements remain a focal point for FX markets.
The BoC is expected to raise interest rates, with a 25bps increase likely.
Asian FX reserves saw a softening trend, but USD/SGD and USD/MyR stabilized.
Singapore's property cooling measures had a significant impact on equity and bond markets.
Equities and commodities were mixed, with a risk-on tone in global markets.

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