20171129-大华银行-Markets_Overview_5页_258kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (29 November 2017)

Core Content

This document provides an overview of global economic and market developments for the week of 29 November 2017, focusing on key economic indicators, central bank outlooks, FX rates, equities, and commodities.

Main Highlights

Markets Overview

Key Economic Data:
- European Commission's sentiment indicators for November and a second reading on French GDP growth for 3Q.
- France will release October consumer spending, and Spain will provide mortgage lending data for September.
- The flash November HICP readings for Germany and Spain are of most interest, with headline inflation expected to rise to 1.7% y/y and 1.9% y/y, respectively.
- The UK will publish October money and credit data.
- The US will release the second reading of 3Q GDP growth, expected to show a small upward revision from the initial estimate of 3.0% saar.
- Additional data includes October pending home sales and the latest Fed Beige Book.
Asia Economic Outlook:
- Attention will be on KRW following North Korea's missile launch.
- Despite the missile event, the won is expected to remain strong, not being derailed from its highest levels since May 2015.
- Economic data in Asia remains light midweek, with only South Korea's store sales and Vietnam's inflation and trade data expected.

Central Bank Outlook

Federal Reserve (US)

Jerome Powell's Confirmation Hearing:
- Powell, the new Fed Chair nominee, was seen as a pragmatic moderate.
- He pledged to continue the Fed's current monetary policy, gradually raising interest rates if economic growth remains healthy.
- He did not confirm a rate hike in December, though it is widely expected.
Outgoing Chair Janet Yellen:
- Will speak on the economic outlook to the Congress' Joint Economic Committee.

Bank of England (UK)

Financial Stability Report:
- The 2017 stress test showed that UK banks can absorb losses of GBP50bn in the first two years.
- Banks do not need to strengthen their capital positions.
Countercyclical Capital Buffer:
- The FPC will increase the buffer rate from 0.5% to 1% starting from 28 November 2018.
- The Bank warned that global risks such as debt levels, asset valuations, and misconduct costs could lead to more severe conditions.

Bank of Canada (Canada)

Highlighted household indebtedness and housing market imbalances as key vulnerabilities.
Noted that a stronger economy and sound policies are helping to ease these risks.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

The financial system is considered sound, with risks reduced over the past six months.
Will begin easing LVR restrictions from 1 January 2018, lowering the required deposit from 40% to 35% for most investors.
Only 5% of loans can be made to investors who do not meet the deposit requirement.

FX Market Overview

US Dollar (USD):
- Rose against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, rebounding from a two-month low.
- The USD index was up 0.34% at 93.22.
- EUR/USD fell to 1.1827, while GBP experienced a brief dip but recovered after a Brexit deal report.
- USD/JPY pushed above 111, but the move was not sustained after the North Korean missile launch.
Asian Currencies:
- KRW finished 0.4% higher at 1,084.25 per dollar.
- PHP gained 0.3% to 50.36 per dollar.
- MYR steadily gained, closing near the 4.1000 level.
- THB reached its strongest levels in over two years at 32.60 per dollar.
- CNY and CNH weakened slightly but remained within a narrow range around 6.60.
USD/SGD:
- Traded a narrow range, closing little changed at 1.3461.
- Support and resistance levels at 1.3435 and 1.3480, respectively.

Equities Market Overview

US Equities:
- Major indices closed at record highs, driven by optimism around US tax reform.
- Dow Jones rose 255.93 points (+1.09%).
- S&P 500 climbed 25.62 points (+0.98%).
- Nasdaq gained 33.84 points (+0.49%).
European Equities:
- Finished in the black, influenced by individual stock news and comments from the new Fed Chair.
- Oil and gas sector led the gains.
- Banking stocks rose following the BoE's stress test results.

US Treasuries

Yields:
- US Treasury yields inched higher as risk appetite improved.
- The yield curve steepened slightly, with the 2-year note and 10-year note yields widening to 57.90 basis points.
Impact of News:
- A North Korean missile launch briefly caused yields to fall.

Commodities

Oil:
- Prices eased due to uncertainty around OPEC's production cut decision.
- A fire at an Exxon Mobil refinery in Texas added to the pressure.
Gold:
- Inched higher, mirroring the US dollar's rise.
Silver, Platinum, Palladium:
- Silver fell 1.1%.
- Platinum dropped 0.1%.
- Palladium rose 1.8%.

Economic News & Data

US Data:
- Goods trade deficit widened to USD68.3bn in October.
- Wholesale and retail inventories fell by 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively, impacting 4Q GDP growth.
- US Conference Board consumer confidence reached a 17-year high of 129.5.
- Richmond Fed manufacturing survey headline index jumped to 30, the highest since 1993.
Other Data:
- Spain's retail sales declined by 0.1% y/y in October.
- ECB reported M3 growth of 5.0% y/y in October, with steady growth in household loans and increased corporate loan growth.
- Global risks, including a disorderly Brexit and a severe global recession, remain a concern for the FPC.

Market Holidays/Events

Philippines: Bonifacio Day on 30 November.
Malaysia: Birthday of Prophet Muhammad on 1 December.
Indonesia: Maulid Nabi Muham on 1 December.
Thailand: King's Birthday on 5 December and Constitution Day on 11 December.
SG/MY: Christmas Day on 25 December.

UOB's Estimation of SGD NEER

Estimated Range:
- Lower-End: 1.3891
- Upper-End: 1.3346
- Mid-Point: 1.3613

Interest Rates

USD Fed Funds Rate: 1.00–1.25% (Next meeting: 12–13 Dec), UOB forecast: 1.25–1.50%.
EUR Refinancing Rate: 0.00% (Next meeting: 14 Dec), UOB forecast: 0.00%.
GBP Repo Rate: 0.50% (Next meeting: 14 Dec), UOB forecast: 0.50%.
AUD Official Cash Rate: 1.50% (Next meeting: 5 Dec), UOB forecast: 1.50%.
NZD Official Cash Rate: 1.75% (Next meeting: 9 Nov), UOB forecast: 1.75%.
JPY Official Cash Rate: 0–0.10% (Next meeting: 21 Dec), UOB forecast: 0–0.10%.
MYR O/N Policy Rate: 3.00% (Next meeting: 9 Nov), UOB forecast: 3.00%.
IDR 7-Day Repo Rate: 4.25% (Next meeting: 14 Dec), UOB forecast: 4.25%.
THB 1-Day Repo Rate: 1.50% (Next meeting: 20 Dec), UOB forecast: 1.50%.
PHP O/N Reverse Repo: 3.00% (Next meeting: 14 Dec), UOB forecast: 3.00%.
INR Repo Rate: 6.00% (Next meeting: -), UOB forecast: 6.00%.
TWD Discount Rate: 1.375% (Next meeting: 15 Dec), UOB forecast: 1.375%.
KRW Base Rate: 1.25% (Next meeting: 30 Nov), UOB forecast: 1.50%.
HKD Base Rate: 1.00% (Next meeting: -), UOB forecast: 1.00%.
CNY 1-Year Working Capital Rate: 4.35% (Next meeting: -), UOB forecast: 4.35%.

Bond Yields

US 2-Year Bond: 1.75% (+0.6%).
US 10-Year Bond: 2.33%.
JP 10-Year JGB: 0.04% (-0.3%).
EU 10-Year Bund: 0.34% (-0.3%).
UK 10-Year Long Gilt: 1.25%.

Summary of Key Points

Inflation: Expected to rise in Germany and Spain.
Central Bank Actions: The BoE will increase the countercyclical capital buffer rate to 1% in 2018.
FX Market: USD strengthened, while KRW and THB showed resilience.
Equities: US and European indices rose due to tax reform optimism and positive economic news.
Commodities: Oil prices eased, gold rose, and silver and platinum declined.
Economic Data: Mixed results with some positive surprises, such as consumer confidence and manufacturing indices.
Market Events: Multiple economic reports and central bank meetings are expected in the coming days, influencing market sentiment.