2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Cyprus_Selected_Issues_Paper_53页_1mb

报告摘要

Cyprus: Selected Issues Paper Summary

Core Content

This document is a Selected Issues Paper prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team in November 2011. It provides an in-depth analysis of key economic issues in Cyprus, including banking sector vulnerabilities, pension system challenges, public financial management, and external competitiveness. The paper aims to assess risks and suggest reform options to ensure long-term financial stability.

Main Issues and Reform Options

I. Cyprus Banking Sector Vulnerabilities

A. Summary

Commercial banks are the most significant source of risk due to their strong ties with the local economy and heavy exposure to Greek government bonds.
Preliminary estimates suggest €3.6 billion in capital needs to achieve a core Tier 1 (CT1) capital ratio of 9 percent, considering losses on sovereign debt holdings.
Banks are expected to de-lever, issue contingent convertible securities (CoCos), retain profits, and cut costs to raise capital. If these measures are insufficient, government or external support may be required.
The banking system appears capable of absorbing moderate funding shocks, but individual banks may face liquidity pressures, especially if there is a rapid loss of deposits.

B. Overview of the Banking System

The Cypriot banking system has total assets of nearly €152 billion, or 8.35 times GDP.
Domestic commercial banks (the largest component) hold €92.1 billion in assets, with €60.3 billion in loans and €28.7 billion in securities and other investments.
Greek exposure is significant, with €23.4 billion in direct loans and €4.7 billion in Greek government bonds.
Cooperative banks have a smaller but still substantial exposure to the local economy, with €12.4 billion in loans to Cypriot residents.
Foreign bank subsidiaries are less connected to the local economy and have €35.3 billion in assets, with €16.5 billion in direct loans to Cyprus.
Branches of foreign banks are primarily non-resident-focused, with €7.6 billion in assets, and €5.5 billion in deposits, most from non-residents.

C. Bank Solvency and Liquidity

The CT1 capital ratio of the system was 8.6 percent as of June 2011, below the 9 percent target.
Contingent convertible securities (CoCos) have been issued, but they do not count toward CT1 unless the ratio falls below the regulatory minimum.
Loan arrears have risen sharply, reaching 13.9 percent of the book by end-June 2011.
A liquidity stress test suggests that the system could withstand a moderate funding shock, but individual bank vulnerabilities are not fully captured in this analysis.
The ECB funding is crucial for liquidity, but sovereign downgrades could reduce the availability of collateral for such funding.

D. Liquidity

Deposits are the primary source of funding, with €41.8 billion raised locally, €23.1 billion from non-residents.
Non-resident deposits are largely from Russia and CIS states, and are more volatile than overall deposits.
Loan-to-deposit ratios are high, at 93 percent, indicating a high reliance on deposits.
Interbank funding is a small portion of liabilities, at 6.5 percent, and debt market funding is only 2.3 percent.
Covered bonds have been issued to raise funding, with €1.2 billion raised since June 2011.
Liquidity buffers have been declining, with liquid assets as a percentage of liabilities maturing in one year or less dropping from 64 percent in Q2 2009 to 44 percent in Q1 2011.

II. The Cypriot Pension System: Issues and Reform Options

A. Introduction

The Cypriot pension system is dominated by publicly provided schemes, primarily the General Social Insurance Scheme (GSIS) and the Government Employees Pension Scheme (GEPS).
The GSIS covers both public and private sector workers, while the GEPS provides occupational pensions for central government employees.
Non-contributory pension schemes also contribute to the fiscal burden.

B. Background

The GSIS was established in 1957 and operates on a pay-as-you-go basis, despite being partially funded.
Contribution rates have been gradually increasing, from 12.6 percent in 2008 to 19.6 percent by 2039.
Early retirement is common, with no penalty for retiring at 63 years.
Pension benefits depend on contribution period and gross insurable earnings.
The GSIS has been running small deficits, excluding government contributions and interest income.
The special reserve of the social security fund is primarily invested in government securities and represents a government commitment to meet future shortfalls.

C. Main Issues

Public pension expenditures are expected to double by 2050, far exceeding planned contribution increases.
The GSIS and GEPS are major contributors to public pension spending, accounting for 85 percent of total spending in 2010.
Unemployment benefits and pension outlays have increased due to the global financial crisis.
The GSIS has been underfunded, relying heavily on government transfers and interest income.
The GEPS has been financed mainly by general taxation, with limited employee contributions.

D. Reform Options

Increase contribution rates to improve fiscal sustainability.
Introduce more stringent eligibility conditions for pensions.
Implement pension indexation reforms to align with inflation and wage growth.
Enhance financial transparency and long-term planning for pension systems.
Consider privatization or restructuring of pension schemes to reduce the fiscal burden.

III. Strengthening Public Financial Management and Managing Fiscal Risks

The public financial management system in Cyprus needs strengthening to manage fiscal risks.
The status of reforms includes measures to improve budgetary discipline and public spending efficiency.
Outstanding guarantees to public and other organizations are a concern, with €27 billion in deposits guaranteed by the deposit insurance fund.
PPP projects are costly and require careful cost-benefit analysis.
The main outstanding issues include budgetary sustainability, public debt management, and fiscal discipline.
Reform options focus on improving transparency, enhancing accountability, and implementing fiscal consolidation measures.

IV. External Competitiveness

Labor market indicators show high unemployment and low productivity, affecting external competitiveness.
Service exports have been evolving, with a focus on tourism and financial services.
Relative prices play a key role in competitiveness, with inflation and wage levels being important factors.
Other aspects of competitiveness include trade balances, foreign direct investment, and institutional quality.
The conclusion emphasizes the need for structural reforms to improve labor market flexibility, productivity, and price competitiveness.

Key Information

Cyprus banking sector is highly exposed to Greek sovereign debt and local economic conditions.
Capital needs are estimated at €3.6 billion to meet the core Tier 1 capital ratio of 9 percent.
Pension expenditures are expected to surge by 2050, requiring government transfers of 7 percent of GDP.
The GSIS and GEPS are the main public pension schemes, with the GSIS covering public and private sector workers.
Liquidity risks are rising due to declining deposit levels and limited alternative funding sources.
Fiscal sustainability is a critical concern, with the need for reform highlighted in multiple sections of the paper.
Structural reforms are necessary to improve competitiveness and ensure long-term economic stability.

Conclusion

The Selected Issues Paper highlights significant vulnerabilities in Cyprus's banking sector and pension system, with external competitiveness also being a key area of concern. The banking sector requires capital injections and liquidity management, while the pension system needs reforms to ensure fiscal sustainability. The government and IMF recommend structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and improved public financial management to address these challenges.