2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Switzerland_Selected_Issues_Paper_43页_829kb

报告摘要

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Switzerland

I. Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Export Performance and Consumer Prices

Core Content

This paper analyzes the relationship between exchange rate movements and export performance, as well as their impact on consumer prices in Switzerland.

Main Points

The trade balance is influenced by exchange rate pass-through and trade elasticities. A real exchange rate appreciation can worsen the trade balance if the sum of the absolute values of export and import elasticities exceeds one.
Exchange rate pass-through is an important factor in determining how domestic import demand responds to exchange rate fluctuations. High pass-through means that a nominal appreciation leads to a significant decline in the domestic price of imports, increasing their demand.
Elasticities vary across export markets, with exports to emerging markets being more sensitive to exchange rate changes than those to mature markets.
Swiss exports have shown resilience despite the appreciation of the Swiss franc during 2009-2010, with the ratio of export prices to the CPI remaining relatively stable.
Exports of goods have a long-run elasticity to the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) ranging from -90% to -130%, while exports of services are not significantly correlated with NEER fluctuations.
The euro area remains the main destination for Swiss exports, but emerging markets are growing in importance.
Price elasticities differ by destination and may reflect different pricing strategies or demand characteristics.

Key Findings

The long-run exchange rate pass-through to the consumer price index (CPI) is low, ranging from 2% to 4.7%, while import price pass-through is higher, up to 56% within six quarters.
Short-term dynamics suggest that the impact on import prices becomes significant after three quarters.
Non-tradable goods and pricing strategies may partially explain the low CPI pass-through.

II. Legal Framework for Macroprudential Oversight in Switzerland

Core Content

This section examines the legal framework for macroprudential oversight in Switzerland and proposes a way forward.

Main Points

The current legal framework does not fully support macroprudential oversight, as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) have distinct mandates.
The SNB is primarily responsible for monetary policy, while FINMA focuses on financial stability and supervision.
The cooperation framework between the SNB and FINMA is necessary for effective macroprudential policy, as it would allow for the sharing of information and coordinated action.
Macroprudential instruments such as capital requirements, loan-to-value ratios, and countercyclical measures could be used to manage financial system risks.
The legal and institutional arrangements for macroprudential oversight in other countries (e.g., the U.S., U.K., and Japan) offer useful examples for Switzerland.

Key Findings

There is a need for a more integrated legal framework to support macroprudential oversight.
The SNB and FINMA should enhance their cooperation and coordination.
Macroprudential tools could help mitigate financial risks and stabilize the economy.

III. Conclusion

Main Points

The exchange rate has a significant impact on export performance and consumer prices, with varying degrees of pass-through across different sectors and markets.
The legal framework for macroprudential oversight in Switzerland is fragmented, and a coordinated approach is necessary to enhance financial stability.
Policy implications include the need for flexible exchange rate policies, targeted macroprudential measures, and improved coordination between the SNB and FINMA.

Key Recommendations

Monitor and adjust exchange rate policies based on export performance and inflation trends.
Develop a comprehensive legal framework for macroprudential oversight to ensure financial stability.
Enhance cooperation between the SNB and FINMA to better manage systemic risks.

Key Information

The paper was prepared by Thierry Tressel (EUR) and Atilla Arda (LEG) and approved by the European Department of the IMF.
The date of completion was April 28, 2011.
The legal and institutional arrangements for macroprudential oversight are discussed in the Annexes and Boxes.
The empirical analysis is based on error-correction models and co-integration tests.

References

Campa and Goldberg (2005): Discuss exchange rate pass-through in OECD countries.
Burnstein et al. (2007): Highlight the importance of non-tradable goods in final goods prices.
Engel (2002): Notes that pass-through is low in low-inflation developed countries.
Obstfeld (2001): Explains the substitution effect between domestic and foreign goods.

Tables and Figures

Table I.1: Long-Run Relationships at Various Lags
Table II.1: Macroprudential Instruments
Table II.2: Selected Country Examples for Macroprudential Mandates
Table II.3: Possible Swiss Macroprudential Mandates & Institutional Arrangement
Figure II.1: Legal Framework for Macroprudential Oversight
Figure II.2: SNB's Current Mandate
Figure II.3: FINMA's Current Mandate